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COVID cases increase and new variant Analytics Table
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UK ONS, 6 to 12 December 2020 England Prevalence, 567,300 One in 95 people London, East of England, East Midlands, South East North West, Yorkshire, The Humber Scotland Up to 1 in 100 Wales Up to 1 in 90 COVID-19 deaths Decrease slightly for second week in a row Deaths, + 2,756 in the week Deaths remained above the five-year average in all English regions and in Wales UK Official data https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases CDC trends (Thursday, 10th December) https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases Official US hospitalizations https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/COVIDNet/COVID19_3.html https://covidtracking.com US Hospitalizations, 117,777 Deaths, + 18,268 in the last 7 days Week before, 17,291 Week before, 15,215 LA county One in 80 Fresno County, CA We had 9,572 new Covid-19 cases last week over seven days, an all time high for us. The ICU beds in the county are full. A new 50 bed ICU ward was opened today and there are plans to open overflow beds for Covid-19 patients in the convention center We have been short staffed at my work related to staff members testing positive for Covid-19. I find it very frustrating that people I know say this is not a real pandemic because only 1% of patients die. Some people are getting very sick and the rest of us need to protect them by wearing masks, social distancing and avoid group situations. Jeremy Luban, virologist, University of Massachusetts Medical School It may very well be here. It may have even started here. The sequencing in the U.S. is so sporadic It makes sense that it was detected first in the U.K. because they have probably the world’s best surveillance program. Angela Rasmussen, virologist, Georgetown Center for Global Health Science and Security It would not shock me at all to find out that it also is circulating in the U.S the coronavirus already in the United States is spreading easily a new variant will not change the need for people to follow public health guidance I don’t think a travel ban is going to be particularly helpful We already have out-of-control transmission of all the variants that are circulating in the U.S. November, 30,000 direct passengers to US from LHR Mutation / new variant, N501Y, B.1.1.7 Significance of 2020 12 was not clear until 8th December, by analysing epidemiological data in Kent Sequencing takes 3 weeks and hundreds are needed for correlation studies First identified 21st September Increased viral load or increased viral shedding? The country with the best genomic monitoring has the most mutations? UK sequencing, 45% of global total of sequencing Denmark has highest per capita sequence, and 10 cases 2020 12 have been picked up there Australia has picked up 2 cases of 2020 12 There have been contemporaneous increases in incidence in several countries Mutations occur at equal rate in every part of the world South Africa mutation has similar effects as 2020 12 but arose separately Nigeria (206 million) has a sharp increase in cases, despite poor levels of testing and no genomic sequencing Possible children may be more suspectable to 2020 12 Any one infected person can be infected with a range of viral genomes Likelihood of long COVID not likely to be caused by viral variant Biology of linkage between genetic changes and viral behavioural change is poorly understood R 0.8 up to 1.2 UK R today 1.2 Europe was R = 3 without controls More likely to arise in immunocompromised patients RNA Bases A C U G adenine, cytosine, uracil, and guanine AAGCUGCUGUGUCCUCCUCUUGUUCGACGACACAGGRG https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0092867420306292 Virus, 29,903 base RNA code Taiwan Population 23 million Not happy Roll back foreign flights and tighten quarantine requirements for crew Cargo pilot NZ, said to already be coughing during his last flight, did not wear a mask at all times First locally transmitted case since April No community spread for 253 days
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