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Explore Russian Mobilisation - what does it mean for the war in Ukraine? with 956,688 views, 35,033 likes, and 4,529 comments. Experience the impact of this video content that has captured audience attention.

Sponsored by Blinkist: Use the link to start your free 7-day Blinkist and get 25% off a Premium membership: https://www.blinkist.com/perun For nearly seven months, the war in Ukraine was not really regarded as a genuine war by the Russian government. The fighting would be done not by a fully mobilised Russian force, but by regular units, mercenaries, and Donbass conscripts - Russia's own conscripts would stay at home. But after seven months the result of that complacency was a crushing shortage of manpower to feed Russian frontline units. Ukrainian mobilisation had made good manpower losses and allowed the formation of entirely new units - while the Russian regular army, still undoubtedly a powerful force, found itself overstretched and forced to trust sections of the front to proxies or Rosgvardia. The results of that policy were obvious during the Kharkiv offensive. Now, Russia has decided to double down and recommit to war. Announcing mobilisation, enacting stop-loss, and 'annexing' parts of Ukraine. In this video, I explore why, how it's going, and what the implication may be. Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PerunAU Caveats: All my videos suffer from fog-of-war effects, but this one is especially difficult because it relies on things that are hard to quantify. The morale of Russian conscripts for example, is critical to the impact this mobilisation has, but is difficult to assess from open sources. As such, take my observations in this video as an attempt to surface relevant considerations, rather than any kind of confident or definitive assessment. I also want to stress that while I focus on some of the difficulties Russia is facing during the mobilisation I want to bring one point home yet again. Russia may be able to find its feet and generate new units if given time and an absence of battlefield pressure. It would be wrong to write off Russian mobilisation potential - and thus It is reasonable to assess that the importance of Ukraine accumulating additional resources in order to compensate is more vital than it has been in months (in my humble opinion). Notes on Sourcing: CSIS piece on Russian force design and manpower issues https://www.csis.org/blogs/post-soviet-post/best-or-worst-both-worlds Aljazeera (just as an illustration of media coverage) on Russian recruitment strategies prior to mobilisation: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/9/18/russia-turns-to-trucks-and-big-wages-to-woo-volunteer-soldiers Full text of the mobilisation order: https://www.politico.eu/article/text-vladimir-putin-mobilization-decree-war-ukraine-russia/ Many of the DLPR/Russian sources used in this video should be familiar to those on this channel. Given the nature of many of these individuals, I do not directly link their content (and obviously do not endorse their views). But these are easy to find if verification is desired. Often quoted for example is Alexander Khodakovsky, commander of a 'regular' unit of the (now defunct) so called 'DPR.' https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexander_Khodakovsky Again, credit to Rob Lee and others for their work collecting and reporting on Russian obituaries and unit casualty identification. https://twitter.com/RALee85 Timestamps: 00:00:00 — Opening Words 00:01:40 — What Am I Covering? 00:02:41 — Sponsor: BLINKIST 00:04:20 — The Problem 00:04:48 — Strategic Inputs 00:06:24 — Russia's 'Unused Strength' 00:08:22 — 1GTA: Instructors and Missileers 00:09:26 — Driving Issues 00:09:37 — I1: Casualties and Attrition 00:11:03 — I2: Contract Lapses 00:13:36 — I3: Recruitment Deficit 00:15:46 — I4: Deployment Restrictions 00:16:58 — Bleeding or Just Fading Away? 00:18:12 — Preparation & Denial 00:19:47 — The Announcement 00:21:07 — The Document 00:22:45 — Reality Might be a Bit Different... 00:23:04 — Stop-Loss & Referenda 00:23:15 — Stop-Loss, Russian Style 00:25:07 — Redefining Russia 00:27:36 — Mobilisation 00:27:51 — Russian Reserves/Resources 00:28:12 — What Are the Russian "Reserves" 00:28:50 — Russian Reserve Readiness 00:29:30 — Who is Being Called Up 00:30:52 — Making Quota 00:32:57 — Training Standards 00:35:42 — Training Failures at the Personal Level 00:37:40 — Equipment Standards 00:39:17 — BYO Kit 00:42:14 — Acknowledging Missteps 00:44:26 — Public Responses 00:45:52 — Motivations for Evasion 00:46:45 — Evaluating the Public Response 00:48:11 — Impacts & Questions 00:48:52 — Q1: Training Pipeline 00:52:27 — Q2: Morale 00:54:26 — Q3: Utilisation 00:56:14 — Stabilising the Situation 00:57:51 — Learning from Ukraine 01:00:44 — A Workable Proxy? 01:03:34 — Inflection Potential? 01:05:23 — Towards General Mobilisation... 01:07:18 — More Painful War 01:09:00 — Conclusions 01:11:43 — Channel Update

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