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Subscribe to Absurd Assets: https://www.youtube.com/@Absurd_Assets?sub_confirmation=1 Samsung’s memory boom is producing extraordinary numbers. Its preliminary third-quarter guidance points to roughly $80 billion in operating profit in a single quarter — nearly nine times the year-earlier figure. At the same time, some of the world’s largest data-center buyers are already paying in advance to secure future Samsung memory supply. The problem is physical. Samsung says a new memory fab can take more than three years to go from construction to actual wafer production. And AI is changing how the memory factories Samsung already owns are used. High-bandwidth memory, or HBM, is the ultra-fast memory placed beside AI processors. But HBM still draws from the broader DRAM manufacturing base that also supplies servers, PCs, phones and other electronics. Samsung says HBM could take nearly one-third of industry DRAM wafer capacity in 2027. TrendForce separately forecasts that HBM could consume about 30% of DRAM wafer input while accounting for only about 13% of the industry’s memory bits. In other words, AI memory can consume a disproportionate share of the manufacturing system. That is why this story goes far beyond HBM. Samsung says it has reached multi-year agreements with its top five global data-center customers and is negotiating with five more major AI-related accounts. Long-term agreements could eventually cover roughly 60–70% of Samsung’s planned DRAM and NAND capacity. AMD is also planning memory supply three to five years ahead. Meanwhile, Micron is spending roughly $24 billion on a new memory fab whose wafer production is not expected until the second half of 2028, and SK hynix has warned that 2027 could become an exceptionally tight supply year. This video explains: Chapters: 0:00 Samsung’s $80 billion memory boom 0:38 Why can’t Samsung just build more fabs? 0:56 What HBM actually is 1:32 AI takes a bigger share of memory factories 2:20 Samsung’s biggest customers lock future supply 3:15 AMD is planning memory years ahead 3:52 Why Samsung can’t simply build more 4:31 Micron’s $24B proof 4:49 Billions now, wafers years later 5:02 The 3-year problem and 5-year solution 5:24 How the shortage hurts Samsung too 6:26 When ordinary memory beats HBM 6:56 Build too little — or build too much 7:45 The three signals to watch 8:10 Who gets the factory capacity? Why AI memory can squeeze ordinary DRAM supply Why major buyers are reserving memory years in advance Why Samsung cannot simply build enough new fabs immediately How scarce wafer capacity creates difficult allocation decisions Why ordinary server memory can sometimes become more profitable per wafer than HBM How Samsung can benefit from high memory prices while other Samsung businesses face rising component costs And why today’s shortage could eventually turn into tomorrow’s excess capacity The central problem is simple: Money can move quickly. Contracts can be signed today. But useful wafers still take years to produce. Until new factories arrive, the decisive asset is the memory-factory capacity that already exists — and who gets it. #Samsung #HBM #AIMemory

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