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UK + 134 = 459 10 deaths PM Real number higher Worst public health crisis for a generation There will be deaths Temp 37.8 + or new continuous cough self-isolate for a week No cruises for over 70s No international school trips Later household quarantine to come Delay disease Protect the vulnerable Patrick 4 weeks behind Italy 5,000 - 10,000 infected now Delay and lower peak Not possible to stop people getting virus 5 days of mild viral illness followed by immunological reaction in a minority of cases Schools may need to close for 13 – 16 weeks Peak 10 – 14 weeks away Chris Contain phase finishes today, moving on to delay Contain has reduced rate of seeding of the virus Now in the delay phase Wash hands Continuous and new cough OR 37.8 stay at home for 7 days (25% reduction in peak) Household isolation (50% lower peak) To, Protect vulnerable people Reduce and delay peak Virus max transmission around first symptoms then for a few days, not infectious after 7 days Minor symptomatic people can be very infectious, ? how many Minor symptoms do not call 111 No longer needed to identify every case, testing capacity moved to symptomatic people in hospital Testing based on symptoms and severity, not travel history Social distancing around the vulnerable later, not yet Children do get infected Top number is 80% CFR 1% overall, higher in older, lower in younger ages

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