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Weekly SMC Outlook: DXY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, XAUUSD (Feb 16-20) Analytics Table
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About Weekly SMC Outlook: DXY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, XAUUSD (Feb 16-20)
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I just launched a free 3-day SMC strategy course that walks through exactly how I trade structure, liquidity, and entries as a full-time trader. You can access it here: https://access.dailypriceaction.com/smc-strategy In this week’s SMC outlook, I’m breaking down the DXY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, and gold using Smart Money Concepts and price action. Last week was extremely sideways. There wasn’t much follow-through anywhere, which makes this week more about confirmation than prediction. Here’s what I’m watching. DXY (US Dollar Index) The DXY is still corrective after that impulsive drop we saw earlier. Price is distributing around the mean and respecting a channel on the 4-hour time frame. We have a buy side imbalance above and liquidity resting below recent lows. That makes this a decision point. If buyers take out the NFP high and we get acceptance above it, we could see a push into that fair value gap. If price starts closing below recent lows instead, that opens the door for continuation lower. Right now, it’s unclear. And when it’s unclear, I’d rather wait than force a trade. EURUSD EURUSD is basically the inverse of the DXY and still stuck in a range. We’ve seen liquidity sweeps, mitigation of imbalances, and internal change of character signals, but no strong follow-through. There are buy side imbalances above and sell side inefficiencies below. Both sides still have work to do. If we get acceptance below the NFP low, I’ll look for shorts on a retrace into premium. If we break and hold above recent highs, that could trigger a bullish flip and open the path back into buy side imbalances. Until we get that confirmation, this is still range behavior. GBPUSD The pound is a little cleaner from a structure standpoint. We have a confirmed change of character and a series of lower highs and lower lows. Short term, structure is still bearish unless price takes out the protected high. If we break and accept above that level, we could start targeting the fair value gap near 1.38. If we continue making lower highs, then the downtrend off the prior high remains intact. For now, structure says caution on longs. AUDUSD AUDUSD is trading in a clear sideways range. There are imbalances above and below current price, which makes this more of a range-trading environment than a trending one. OTE lines up near the highs of the range, and there’s a fair value gap sitting above. If we push into that premium area, I’ll look for a change of character to short the range. If price drops into the sell side imbalance below and gives a buy signal, then I’ll look to trade it back up into the range. This is about reacting to mitigation and confirmation, not guessing direction. Gold (XAUUSD) Gold is digesting that aggressive move higher. When you see that kind of displacement, the market often spends weeks consolidating. There’s still a large buy side imbalance between 5280 and 5400 that hasn’t been mitigated. At the same time, we have clear range boundaries forming. Right now, trading the range makes more sense than chasing a breakout. Yes, gold is in a broader uptrend, but this looks like a pause phase. The event calendar is relatively light, and Monday is a US holiday. That means early week price action will be important. As always, I’m going to trade what the chart shows me, not what I hope happens. If you want to learn the exact SMC strategy I use to trade full-time, check the link in the description. #SMC #SmartMoneyConcepts #DXY #EURUSD #GBPUSD #AUDUSD #Gold #Forex #PriceAction #FairValueGap SMC LESSONS Steal my liquidity sweep entry model (beginner-friendly) https://youtu.be/XH4TAoLCFBk My favorite reversal pattern https://youtu.be/z6osi7TZCZQ BoS and CHoCH made simple https://youtu.be/FE1bgD9N6DM Premium, discount, and OTE explained https://youtu.be/UWrvexqN3w8 CHAPTERS 0:00 Intro 0:39 DXY Outlook 3:09 Free SMC Strategy Course 3:29 EURUSD Outlook 8:11 GBPUSD Outlook 12:18 AUDUSD Outlook 15:31 Gold Outlook Disclaimer: This video is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Trading forex, crypto, and other markets involves risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Always do your own research and never risk money you can’t afford to lose. I am not responsible for any losses you may incur from acting on the information in this video.
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