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Explore State of AI in 2026: LLMs, Coding, Scaling Laws, China, Agents, GPUs, AGI | Lex Fridman Podcast #490 with 908,441 views, 14,331 likes, and 1,172 comments. Experience the impact of this video content that has captured audience attention.

Nathan Lambert and Sebastian Raschka are machine learning researchers, engineers, and educators. Nathan is the post-training lead at the Allen Institute for AI (Ai2) and the author of The RLHF Book. Sebastian Raschka is the author of Build a Large Language Model (From Scratch) and Build a Reasoning Model (From Scratch). Thank you for listening ❤ Check out our sponsors: https://lexfridman.com/sponsors/ep490-sb See below for timestamps, transcript, and to give feedback, submit questions, contact Lex, etc. *Transcript:* https://lexfridman.com/ai-sota-2026-transcript *Correction:* Here's an updated image listing a collection of recent open & closed AI models with some improvements & fixes: https://lexfridman.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/ai_models_2025.png *CONTACT LEX:* *Feedback* - give feedback to Lex: https://lexfridman.com/survey *AMA* - submit questions, videos or call-in: https://lexfridman.com/ama *Hiring* - join our team: https://lexfridman.com/hiring *Other* - other ways to get in touch: https://lexfridman.com/contact *EPISODE LINKS:* Nathan's X: https://x.com/natolambert Nathan's Blog: https://interconnects.ai Nathan's Website: https://natolambert.com Nathan's YouTube: https://youtube.com/@natolambert Nathan's GitHub: https://github.com/natolambert Nathan's Book: https://rlhfbook.com Sebastian's X: https://x.com/rasbt Sebastian's Blog: https://magazine.sebastianraschka.com Sebastian's Website: https://sebastianraschka.com Sebastian's YouTube: https://youtube.com/@SebastianRaschka Sebastian's GitHub: https://github.com/rasbt Sebastian's Books: Build a Large Language Model (From Scratch): https://manning.com/books/build-a-large-language-model-from-scratch Build a Reasoning Model (From Scratch): https://manning.com/books/build-a-reasoning-model-from-scratch *SPONSORS:* To support this podcast, check out our sponsors & get discounts: *Box:* Intelligent content management platform. Go to https://lexfridman.com/s/box-ep490-sb *Quo:* Phone system (calls, texts, contacts) for businesses. Go to https://lexfridman.com/s/quo-ep490-sb *UPLIFT Desk:* Standing desks and office ergonomics. Go to https://lexfridman.com/s/uplift_desk-ep490-sb *Fin:* AI agent for customer service. Go to https://lexfridman.com/s/fin-ep490-sb *Shopify:* Sell stuff online. Go to https://lexfridman.com/s/shopify-ep490-sb *CodeRabbit:* AI-powered code reviews. Go to https://lexfridman.com/s/coderabbit-ep490-sb *LMNT:* Zero-sugar electrolyte drink mix. Go to https://lexfridman.com/s/lmnt-ep490-sb *Perplexity:* AI-powered answer engine. Go to https://lexfridman.com/s/perplexity-ep490-sb *OUTLINE:* 0:00 - Introduction 1:57 - China vs US: Who wins the AI race? 10:38 - ChatGPT vs Claude vs Gemini vs Grok: Who is winning? 21:38 - Best AI for coding 28:29 - Open Source vs Closed Source LLMs 40:08 - Transformers: Evolution of LLMs since 2019 48:05 - AI Scaling Laws: Are they dead or still holding? 1:04:12 - How AI is trained: Pre-training, Mid-training, and Post-training 1:37:18 - Post-training explained: Exciting new research directions in LLMs 1:58:11 - Advice for beginners on how to get into AI development & research 2:21:03 - Work culture in AI (72+ hour weeks) 2:24:49 - Silicon Valley bubble 2:28:46 - Text diffusion models and other new research directions 2:34:28 - Tool use 2:38:44 - Continual learning 2:44:06 - Long context 2:50:21 - Robotics 2:59:31 - Timeline to AGI 3:06:47 - Will AI replace programmers? 3:25:18 - Is the dream of AGI dying? 3:32:07 - How AI will make money? 3:36:29 - Big acquisitions in 2026 3:41:01 - Future of OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind, xAI, Meta 3:53:35 - Manhattan Project for AI 4:00:10 - Future of NVIDIA, GPUs, and AI compute clusters 4:08:15 - Future of human civilization *PODCAST LINKS:* - Podcast Website: https://lexfridman.com/podcast - Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/2lwqZIr - Spotify: https://spoti.fi/2nEwCF8 - RSS: https://lexfridman.com/feed/podcast/ - Podcast Playlist: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLrAXtmErZgOdP_8GztsuKi9nrraNbKKp4 - Clips Channel: https://www.youtube.com/lexclips *SOCIAL LINKS:* - X: https://x.com/lexfridman - Instagram: https://instagram.com/lexfridman - TikTok: https://tiktok.com/@lexfridman - LinkedIn: https://linkedin.com/in/lexfridman - Facebook: https://facebook.com/lexfridman - Patreon: https://patreon.com/lexfridman - Telegram: https://t.me/lexfridman - Reddit: https://reddit.com/r/lexfridman

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