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The Default Option — Affordability, Part 1 of 3. This episode: why housing became mathematically impossible — and who designed it that way. In 1990, a median Australian home cost about four times a household's annual income — a stretch, but a functional one. By 2025 that ratio had hit 8.2 nationally, and more than ten times income in Sydney. The city didn't change. The jobs didn't disappear. People didn't stop working. So what actually broke? This is the full story of Australian housing affordability — not as a run of scary headlines, but as a mechanism. We trace how forty years of policy choices, cheap money, and constrained supply quietly restructured an entire generation's relationship to wealth. We cover why raising interest rates — the tool meant to fix this — hit renters and first-home buyers hardest, why the deposit target now grows faster than most people can save, and what the 2026 Federal Budget's changes to negative gearing and the capital gains tax discount actually do (and don't) fix. It ends where the data points: toward a country where the home becomes something you inherit rather than something you earn. If you've ever run the deposit maths on your own city and felt the number move away from you — this one's for you. ⏱️ CHAPTERS (fill exact times after edit — placeholders below) 0:00 — 1990 vs 2025: the same house, double the stretch [ : ] — Can the average wage buy a home? (the arithmetic) [ : ] — The numbers: 8.2× income, and Sydney past 10× [ : ] — The hidden side: not a market failure, a designed outcome [ : ] — Why supply can't respond (price inelasticity) [ : ] — The rate paradox & the Cantillon Effect [ : ] — Wages, purchasing power, and the deposit trap [ : ] — Adelaide: when repayments eat 70% of a wage [ : ] — When wealth becomes inherited, not earned [ : ] — The 2026 Budget: negative gearing & CGT, changed at last [ : ] — The verdict: a failure of distribution, not production 📊 KEY DATA (sources below) National dwelling value-to-income ratio: 8.2× — Sydney above 10× (Cotality) ~11 years for a median household to save a 20% deposit (Cotality) Only 14% of median-income households can afford the median home — down from 43% three years ago (Cotality) Renters now pay a record 33.4% of pre-tax income; national rents up 42.9% in five years (Cotality) Home values up ~47% since March 2020 — roughly +$280,000 to the median (Cotality) 25–34 home ownership fell from ~56% (early 1980s) to ~34% (ABS) 2026 Budget: negative gearing on established homes restricted to new builds; 50% CGT discount replaced with indexation + a 30% floor; passed June 2026, commences 1 July 2027; existing owners grandfathered (Federal Treasury) 🔗 SOURCES Cotality Housing Affordability Report (Nov 2025): https://discover.cotality.com/hubfs/Article-Reports/2511-Cotality-Housing-Affordability-Report-November-FINAL.pdf Cotality — "Australia's housing affordability hits new lows": https://www.cotality.com/au/insights/articles/australias-housing-affordability-hits-new-lows Grattan Institute — housing affordability & supply [confirm exact report URL] IMF — on demand-side buyer subsidies and prices [confirm exact URL] ABS — home ownership and household data [confirm exact URL] Federal Treasury — 2026–27 Budget, housing tax measures [confirm exact URL] ▶️ RELATED Zoom Out #01 — Why Rate Cuts Make the Rich Richer (the Cantillon Effect, in full): [VIDEO_ID] Affordability Part 2 — Why Your Groceries Cost More (next in the series): [VIDEO_ID] — The Default Option breaks down the economy through the things you actually pay for. New videos weekly. 🔔 Subscribe: [CHANNEL_LINK] 📩 Substack (the written companion): [LINK] 🐦 X: [@handle] #HousingAffordability #AustralianHousing #CostOfLiving #Economics #Property #NegativeGearing #FirstHomeBuyer #TheDefaultOption

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