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Ray Dalio and Michael Burry are warning about an AI bubble. I’m still bullish on profitable AI businesses. I put the valuation warnings beside the earnings, reported growth and cash-flow evidence, then explain what would change my mind. Chapters: 00:00 The AI bubble and my bullish view 00:24 Five years of market prices 01:05 Dalio and Burry’s latest warnings 01:42 CAPE and the Buffett indicator 03:29 Why valuation does not time a crash 04:05 Forward valuation and the earnings forecast 05:43 Reported tech growth and Nvidia demand 07:00 Cash flow and equipment-life economics 08:20 Burry’s warnings and his Sell correction 09:33 A fair scorecard for Ray Dalio 10:14 Growth and valuation stress scenarios 10:55 What would change my bullish view 11:35 My conclusion We cover CAPE, the Buffett indicator, broad-index forward P/E and analyst earnings forecasts; reported technology-company results; the cash bill for AI infrastructure; a simple equipment-life illustration; and a fair scorecard of Dalio and Burry’s past calls. A warning, hedge or long-horizon forecast is not automatically a timed crash prediction. Recorded October 9, 2026. The latest S&P 500 close snapshot is October 8; the common five-year market-history chart ends October 7. FactSet consensus is dated October 2 with September 30 prices. Company actuals, management guidance, analyst estimates and hypothetical scenarios retain their separate periods and bases. Price comparisons exclude dividends and do not measure the investors’ portfolio returns. On-screen corrections: the forward-P/E price date is September 30, 2026. The illustrative bear scenario uses an ending P/E of 14, with earnings down 10%, producing a roughly 34% price decline. My view is bullish and selective, with clear earnings and cash-return checkpoints. Educational investing analysis and personal opinion; investing involves risk. No personal holding or trade is claimed. Sources: https://www.forbes.com/sites/fionariley/2026/10/07/billionaire-ray-dalio-warns-ai-bubble-could-soon-burst/ https://michaeljburry.substack.com/p/short-thoughts-the-ai-cloud-oligopoly https://michaeljburry.substack.com/p/short-thoughts-may-10-2026 https://advantage.factset.com/hubfs/Website/Resources%20Section/Research%20Desk/Earnings%20Insight/EarningsInsight_100226.pdf https://investor.nvidia.com/news/press-release-details/2026/NVIDIA-Announces-Financial-Results-for-Second-Quarter-Fiscal-2027/ https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/investor/earnings/fy-2026-q4/press-release-webcast https://s206.q4cdn.com/479360582/files/doc_financials/2026/q2/2026q2-alphabet-earnings-release.pdf https://substack.com/@michaeljburry/note/c-185101103 https://www.bridgewater.com/_document/stock-market-bubble?id=00000177-ba4b-d5a2-ab7f-fb7b9efe0000 Website: https://kaancanguven.com #AIBubble #StockMarket #Investing Music: "Werq" Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com) Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 4.0 License https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Track: https://incompetech.com/music/royalty-free/index.html?Search=Search&isrc=USUAN1800005 Modifications: brief excerpts, level adjustment and fades in the opening and closing 20 seconds. The voice remains foreground; the middle contains no music. Image credit: Ray Dalio portrait, Harry Murphy / Web Summit / Sportsfile (Web Summit 2018). CC BY 2.0. Background removed; historical image. https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Web_Summit_2018_-_Forum_-_Day_2,_November_7_HM1_7481_(44858045925).jpg https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/

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