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Explore THIS is the Day Iran Breaks the Market (& Why Gold is Next) with 507,775 views, 7,701 likes, and 149 comments. Experience the impact of this video content that has captured audience attention.

Felix Nikolas Prehn, economist and former investment banker, explains why the S&P 500 is up 10% after 8 months of war with Iran while oil is up more than 50%, what a peace deal would do to oil, inflation, interest rates and your portfolio, and why gold has fallen about 27% in the middle of a war. 💡Don’t Miss the "GREAT PIVOT Opportunity". Get your free seat for Saturday at https://greatpivot.org 🐶 Get your 30 day free trial to the Winston Metals & Stock App & lock in the Founders Tier at: https://gogetwinston.com 👉 Get your free research report at https://felixfriends.org/peacedeal Wars are meant to crash markets. This one hasn't. The S&P 500 fell 7.8% to its low on 30 March, then climbed 19.5% and closed at a record on 6 October. Felix explains why: a share price is a guess about the future, and once investors can see a way out of a war they start pricing its end while the fighting carries on. He compares it with Operation Desert Storm in 1991, when oil fell by about a third in a single day and the S&P 500 jumped 3.7%. He also counts the war bill American households are already paying. Inflation went from 2.4% to 3.7%, petrol is up 34% and fuel oil 74%, the Federal Reserve raised rates for the first time since 2023, and the typical 30 year mortgage rate rose from 5.98% to 7.24%. On a $400,000 loan that is $333 more every month. Then the 3 week preview most people missed. After the temporary deal on 15 June, Brent crude fell 28%, the Nasdaq rose about 3%, the Dow and the Russell 2000 closed at records and energy shares fell. Goldman Sachs cut its oil forecast. The deal collapsed on 8 July. Felix sets out where the Qatari mediated talks stand now, why nothing is signed, and what each outcome would do to oil, inflation and the Fed. He walks through the parts of the market that tend to gain from cheaper oil and lower rates, including smaller companies, airlines, transport, housebuilders and consumer spending, and why energy is both the risk in a deal and the insurance if talks collapse. On gold, he shows which central banks were forced to sell, including Turkey, Russia, Jordan and Azerbaijan's state oil fund, why they sold, and why that selling comes with an expiry date. The plan, deal or no deal: 4 things to watch each week, and a simple way to mark every holding you own by the outcome it needs. We're not going to panic. We're going to have a plan. Free report from The Prehn Institute: felixfriends.org/peacedeal Free live training, The Great Pivot: greatpivot.org on [date/time TBC]. Type PIVOT in the comments so Felix knows you're coming. This video is for education only and is not financial advice. About Felix Nikolas Prehn Felix Nikolas Prehn, also known as Nikolas Prehn, is an economist and former investment banker, born in Germany. He is a tech founder: he co-founded TradeVision.io (Acetrader Inc), founded Winston Daily and The Prehn Institute, and publishes weekly on YouTube. He is also a painter and sculptor and a public advocate for animal rescue. Biography: https://felixprehn.com/about Website: https://felixprehn.com Essays: https://felixprehn.com/writing Research profile (ORCID): https://orcid.org/0009-0003-0238-8790 X: https://x.com/felixprehn Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 02:26 Household Reality vs. Market Highs: Energy Spikes & 3.7% Inflation 03:08 The Federal Reserve Pivot: Rates Hit 4% and 30-Year Mortgages Touch 7.2% 04:11 The 10-Year Treasury Yield Surge: Sovereign Borrowing Costs Jump to 5.3% 05:34 Single-Session Market Volatility: Tech Liquidations (Intel -29%, Alphabet -$500B) 06:38 Sector Rotation Unmasked: Mega-Cap Tech Outflows to Energy & Staples 08:10 How Stocks Gain During Geopolitical Conflicts: Lessons from Desert Storm (1991) 10:18 The 3-Week Peace Preview (June 15 - July 8 Case Study) 11:45 Diplomatic Status: Qatari Mediation, Hormuz Blockades, and $112/bbl Oil 13:08 Macro Scenarios: Inflation Deceleration vs. $130 Oil Projections 16:11 Winners & Losers Under $75 vs. $130 Oil (Small Caps, Airlines, Transport) 19:45 The Gold Paradox: Why Metal Fell 27% During Geopolitical Instability 20:25 Central Bank Reserve Mechanics: Sovereign Gold Liquidations in the Middle East 24:00 Outro #FelixNikolasPrehn #NikolasPrehn #IranPeaceDeal

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