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Explore The Professor Who Predicted the Iran War: The Worst Yet to Come with 143,759 views, 2,327 likes, and 240 comments. Experience the impact of this video content that has captured audience attention.

Join as a channel member for exclusive content: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC7-TPqKMViddKZeo4K2P2jg/join Support the Channel One-time support: https://buymeacoffee.com/theglobalgambit Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/theglobalgambit Newsletter https://pyotrskurzin.substack.com Connect X: https://twitter.com/PKurzin Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/pyotrkurzin.bsky.social Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/pyotrsfootprints/ Iran's War escalation predictor Professor Robert Pape joins me to explain how he modelled a war with Iran for 20 years—and why he believes the conflict is now entering a more dangerous phase. In part one, we examine his “escalation trap”, the risk of the Hormuz and Saudi–Houthi fronts merging into a wider war, and the prediction that still hasn’t materialised. I press him on whether his models can account for Donald Trump, what would prove his forecasts wrong, and why classified intelligence can sometimes make Washington worse at understanding its enemies. We also discuss why he now believes Ukraine has the edge, his doubts about Trump’s Russian diesel deal, and what US intelligence may have missed about Ukraine’s military.0 0:00 Introduction 02:39 The escalation trap: entering the spiral phase 06:45 How do you predict unpredictable wars? 07:31 Bombing to Win: the framework behind his forecasts 14:06 Can we assume leaders act rationally? 17:12 The Iran prediction that hasn’t happened 21:22 Can his models account for Donald Trump? 26:20 Putin’s blunder and why Ukraine now has the edge 28:15 Trump’s Russian diesel deal: does it add up? #iran #usa #trump #geopolitics #war

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