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Four crises are converging on the world's food supply. War has closed the Strait of Hormuz. Extreme heat is cutting crop yields. The strongest El Niño in a decade is forecast. And Trump's tariffs are fracturing the trade networks that keep food moving. The UK could face food shortages as early as this summer. World food prices are already at their highest level since November 2023, and that pressure has not yet fully been transmitted to what you pay at the till. UK inflation is already expected to breach 5% in 2026, partly as a result of these pressures and the Bank of England warns it could get worse. Meanwhile, it's the developing world faces the sharpest pain. In countries where food takes the largest share of household income, price spikes tip millions into food insecurity. But the UK is not immune None of these four pressures arose by accident. Each is the consequence of political choices: the decisions to wage war, to burn fossil fuels, to impose tariffs. And the political response so far is nowhere near equal to the scale of the threat. Will you go hungry? That's the question now? The possibility is real. Take a look at the poll below: https://www.youtube.com/post/UgkxHnONr2L_wt266wqQqjMDUIMn-W54dU_l 00:00 — Introduction: a “quadruple attack” on global food supply 00:50 — The four converging threats: war, extreme heat, El Niño, and trade shocks 01:40 — Why multiple shocks create systemic risk, not isolated disruption 02:20 — Strait of Hormuz closure: more than just an oil crisis 03:10 — Fertiliser supply breakdown: ammonia and urea shortages 04:00 — Farming impact: fuel shortages and disrupted planting season 04:45 — Long-term risk: next year’s harvest and seed supply effects 05:30 — Climate pressure: extreme heat reducing crop yields globally 06:20 — Ocean crisis: marine heatwaves and fishery collapse 07:00 — El Niño outlook: drought, weak monsoons, and global crop stress 07:50 — Regional impacts: Asia, EU, Black Sea, and emerging UK drought 08:40 — Trade disruption: tariffs breaking global food supply balancing 09:20 — Price effects: rising Bloomberg Agricultural Spot Index 10:00 — Global inequality: developing nations hit hardest 10:40 — UK exposure: import dependence and inflation risks 11:10 — Buffer and limits: food inventories as short-term protection 11:25 — Conclusion: urgent need for coordinated global response TRANSCRIPT A transcript for this video is available at: https://www.taxresearch.org.uk IF YOU WANT TO WRITE TO YOUR MP ABOUT ISSUES IN THIS VIDEO If you want to write a letter to your MP on the issues raised in this blog post, there is a ChatGPT prompt to assist you in doing so, with full instructions, here. https://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2025/06/20/chatgpt-prompt-for-a-letter-to-your-mp/ HOW TO SUPPORT US Please consider donating: https://ko-fi.com/taxresearch ABOUT RICHARD MURPHY Richard Murphy is Emeritus Professor of Accounting Practice at Sheffield University Management School. He is director of Tax Research LLP and the author of the Funding the Future blog. His best-known book is ‘The Joy of Tax’. This video was edited by Thomas Murphy. RICHARD MURPHY ON BLUESKY: https://bsky.app/profile/richardjmurphy.bsky.social OR ON MY BLOG: http://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/ HIT SUBSCRIBE & GET NOTIFICATIONS Subscribe and get notified of new videos released. INTRODUCTION: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HdHsRPy3060 PLAYLISTS: The Wealth Series https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLvRueM6wBgobQLeyZYAagFDMjEFTKbhRD Ecenomics https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLvRueM6wBgob54Gs-fOL-8OAQ-IpduwB4 Britain https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLvRueM6wBgobwTT4ATvJjsf8OO6S7wD10 Tax https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLvRueM6wBgoaMni_12J6ULp3yUJisUZoY MMT https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLvRueM6wBgoZ6jvRGSW5YXu8qogE6aClX Money https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLvRueM6wBgoYnLk1c7syTvoIo8bKYUs5m Climate Change https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLvRueM6wBgob4_wsYaVivWd2WumpPLYwJ USA https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLvRueM6wBgoYYd3dSyU2Oyl3x7bWJOP7H Labour https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLvRueM6wBgoa-KhzG-fnjDSg1WROL1zMw The Trump Administration https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLvRueM6wBgobz41-GLimTho27A3flVWQx #richardmurphy #richardjmurphy #economy #economics #accountancy #accounting #tax #uktax #ukeconomy #greennewdeal #uk #money #economy #politics #government #tax #labour #health #life #FoodCrisis #FoodPrices #FoodShortages #UKInflation #ElNino #TrumpTariffs #ClimateChange #FertiliserShortage #StraitOfHormuz #CostOfLivingCrisis #FoodSecurity #GlobalFoodSupply #UKEconomy #RichardMurphy #FundingTheFuture

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