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Why AI's greatest risk could unfold without a date, without a visible impact, and without anyone truly deciding to stop it Sam Altman recently identified two ways artificial intelligence could go catastrophically wrong: humanity losing control of the future to AI itself, or a single company or country using an extraordinarily powerful AI to impose its will on everyone else. This piece focuses on the first risk — not who ends up controlling AI, but how we could reach a point where no one controls it at all. The argument opens with an image: when an asteroid is on a collision course with Earth, rival governments and competing companies suddenly coordinate because the danger has a date, a trajectory, a size — everyone can see it. But what happens when a danger is just as real, yet has none of those things? When it is not an object arriving from outside, but a quiet process already unfolding around and within us? The essay proposes a four-step chain to explain how that quiet process might work, using everyday examples instead of technical jargon. It starts with cognitive delegation — using GPS instead of learning a route, simply what tools are for. It moves to cognitive surrender — asking AI to summarize a text instead of reading the original, which delegates not a mechanical task but judgment itself: the sense of what actually matters. From there it becomes epistemic dependence — the point where you no longer know how to evaluate whether something is true without asking AI first. And it ends in administered will — the moment you no longer even notice that the question you asked was shaped by what the system had already shown you, so that a field of options someone else built comes to feel entirely your own. Each step, taken alone, can seem perfectly reasonable. That is precisely what makes the chain dangerous: no single link looks like a threat worth resisting. The essay then scales this mechanism from the individual to the species. What happens to one person can happen to a civilization, with one decisive difference: at civilizational scale, nobody decides anything collectively. Millions of small, reasonable individual choices accumulate without any treaty, organization, or assembly ever having authorized them as a whole. An uncontrollable AGI, in this view, might not arrive through one dramatic technical leap — a machine suddenly “waking up.” It could also arrive by accumulation, as a species gradually relinquishes, decision by decision, its ability to notice that something is slipping out of its hands. This is where the asteroid metaphor returns with its full weight. Visible, common threats can foster cooperation — there is a long tradition in the social sciences describing how, under certain conditions, an external danger can strengthen internal cohesion across prior divisions. A gradual, distributed danger that each person experiences as a private, rational choice is far less likely to produce that same reflex. There is no clear outside threat to point to, and therefore no common frontier around which to coordinate. Presumably, no one is going to demand that their government regulate the fact that they asked an AI for a summary instead of reading a report in full. And yet, the essay argues, the accumulation of exactly these tiny, almost invisible gestures may be one of the paths through which Altman’s first risk eventually materializes. Altman has said there is no need to wait for government before starting to slow down. He may be right — but the deeper question this essay raises is whether we would need to wait until we can actually see the danger before anyone, collectively, decides to act on it. And if the answer is yes — if coordination only comes once there is an asteroid to see — then the real problem is not simply when this process becomes visible. It is that by the time it does, the administered will described by this chain may already have taken hold: not a warning that arrived in time, but a diagnosis that came too late. See the full text at the link: https://medium.com/@ernesto.celdeiro/ai-and-the-asteroid-we-dont-see-6f7d17bbf7ad?sharedUserId=ernesto.celdeiro
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