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Is Phoenix multifamily recovering? The Market Turn Test: three checks on pipeline, absorption and next year's deliveries, plus what hasn't turned. 0:00 The Phoenix Warning Label 0:22 The Market Turn Test: Three Checks 0:43 Welcome to the Investors Collective 1:01 A Cash-In Refinance, Done on Purpose 1:36 What Oversupply Looked Like 1:58 Why Rents and Concessions Turn Last 2:23 Check 1: Is the Pipeline Shrinking? 2:52 Check 2: Is Absorption Beating Deliveries? 3:14 Check 3: Is Next Year's Delivery Number Lower? 3:31 What Hasn't Turned: Rents and Concessions 3:41 Effective Rent (Hypothetical), Leading vs. Lagging 4:13 Does Demand Support a Phoenix Recovery? 4:29 What Could Slow the Turn: Pockets and Water 4:54 Cap Rates: Buyers Aren't Waiting 5:10 Right Building, Right Structure: Underwrite Flat 5:31 Habit 2: Make Sure the Structure Can Wait 5:44 Habit 3: Stress-Test New Construction 6:01 The Opportunity After the Burn-Off 6:21 Free Phoenix Market Report For two years, the Phoenix apartment market was the warning label: record deliveries, free rent, falling rents. The headline numbers still look that way. The numbers that come first, what is being built and what is being absorbed, are telling a different story. The Market Turn Test reads that turn before the rent data catches up, on any market that got flooded with supply. I'm Todd. I spent nearly seven years at a commercial real estate brokerage and personally sourced $350 million of institutional capital as part of a $3 billion platform. This is about finding deals worth doing in today's market. What you will learn: - Check 1, is the pipeline shrinking: units under construction fell by about a third over the past year, and one major broker has them at the lowest level since the start of 2021. - Check 2, is absorption beating deliveries: in the first half of 2026, about 9,400 more apartments were occupied against about 6,400 delivered, roughly 3,000 more filled than added. The counts differ by source; the direction is the same. - Check 3, is next year's delivery number lower: one broker expects roughly 7,000 deliveries in the second half of 2026, about half of the second half of 2025. - What has not turned yet: asking rents are down roughly 2% to 3%, and concessions are heavy (about 21,000 apartments delivered in 12 months, vacancy around 11% to 12%, 4 to 8 weeks of free rent common, some buildings 10 weeks or more). - A hypothetical effective rent example: $1,600 asking with 8 weeks free is about $1,350 a month, and when concessions burn off, effective rent rises about 18% with no change in the asking rent. - What could slow the turn: submarkets still working through supply (Downtown Phoenix, Tempe, the Southwest Valley) and long-term questions like water. Cap rates are down about 80 basis points from a year earlier per one broker, while older Class B and C demand is still uneven. - A cash-in refinance done on purpose, not as a rescue, and three habits for a market that has just turned: underwrite flat for 12 to 18 months, make sure the structure can wait, and stress-test new construction. The edge isn't in being early to a statistic. It's in picking the right building and putting the right structure around it. Read the pipeline, not the headline. Want the full Phoenix market report, with the three checks, the scorecard and named sources? Comment "Market" below and I'll send it to you. Referenced in this video: Capital stack video, "How Much Equity Survives a 20% Drop? (The Capital Stack Test)": https://youtu.be/glW-3Z67hvU Multifamily supply video, "From +185 bps to -16 bps: The Regulatory Squeeze on Multifamily Supply": https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UjUKQ2i13QM Underwriting framework video, "What 'Conservative Underwriting' Actually Looks Like": https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LupVJlaZkuU Development video, "How to Stress-Test a Development Deal": https://youtu.be/s_FVlktgRjk Figures are rounded, from published 2026 reports by Kidder Mathews, Northmarq, CoStar (via Get Multifamily), Yardi Matrix and Greater Phoenix In Business. Levels differ by source; the report names each. More tools and market reports: insights.investorscollective.co Educational content only, not investment, legal, or tax advice. The rent example is hypothetical, not a real property or a projection of returns. Nothing here says Phoenix has bottomed or recovered; the indicators are turning, not turned. Real estate investments carry risk, including loss of principal. Consult your own legal, tax and financial advisors before committing capital. Todd Higley | Capital Strategy & Advisory #RealEstateInvesting #CommercialRealEstate #Multifamily Phoenix multifamily market 2026, Phoenix apartment oversupply, is Phoenix multifamily recovering, has multifamily bottomed, units under construction, net absorption vs deliveries, effective rent vs asking rent, rent concessions, multifamily cap rates 2026, cash-in refinance, how to tell when a market has turned

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