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The Democracy Forum and TDF President Lord Bruce invite you to a live webinar, ‘China and Central Asia: A new dependency’ on Wednesday December 13, 2023 2-3.30pm UK time (GMT) Moderator Humphrey Hawksley, Author & former BBC Asia correspondent Panellists Prof. Stefan Wolff, Professor of International Security, University of Birmingham Dr Anastassiya Mahon, Associate Lecturer in Security Studies, Aberystwyth University; Founder of Unlimitedpolitics.com MJ Akbar, Author & Journalist; Former Member of Parliament in the Rajya Sabha Reid Standish, Correspondent and author of the China in Eurasia briefing, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty Closing remarks by Barry Gardiner MP, Chair of TDF Introducing the event, TDF President Lord Bruce spoke of the May 2023 summit at Xian, during which China’s President Xi met the assembled leaders of Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan ‘like an emperor receiving tribal chieftains’, and used the conference as an undisguised attempt to demonstrate regional leadership. Xi announced a package worth $3.8bn, including FDI, trade deals and technology transfer, and unveiled plans to set up a C+C5 secretariat – with 19 separate channels of direct engagement - thus moving away from the long-established tradition of working bilaterally with Central Asian countries. China is by far the biggest trading partner of the region, added Lord Bruce: the value of its bilateral trade is expected to grow to $70bn by 2030, and it is already involved in over 90 industrial projects across Central Asia. As well as being a key trade and investment partner, China is also an important source of loans, with 45% of Kyrgyzstan’s external borrowing and 52% of Tajikistan’s foreign debt coming from China, while Turkmenistan owes China the equivalent of 16.9% of its GDP, Uzbekistan 16%, and Kazakhstan 6.5%. Beijing is also pushing ahead with technology transfer initiatives across Central Asia and although China and Russia both have an interest in unlocking, transporting and controlling the mineral wealth of the region, it is President Xi who has offered to construct a pipeline to take gas eastwards from Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan - Turkmenistan alone accounts for 70% of Chinese annual gas imports. Geographies can be confusing rather than explanatory, said journalist and author MJ Akbar, – who pondered what we actually mean by the term ‘Central Asia’, as the five ‘stans’ are closer culturally and historically to their neighbours across the Caucasus than they are to their western neighbours. He also highlighted how Iran, as the link nation, is vital to China’s diplomacy in the region, and considered the Chinese sense of both sides of the Himalayas as belonging to China, which remains a major strategic problem for India. This vision of itself means China has had a war with almost every one of its neighbours, added Akbar, while the new China-Russia bonhomie has emerged, not as an extension of national interest, but as a partnership against a common foe, the US. Russia’s involvement in Ukraine has weakened its ability to provide an ‘umbrella’ to the five ‘stans’, which are not yet in a position to exercise the kind of strategic independence that they should. But does this mean that China is rising at Russia’s expense? Not really, argued Standish, adding that the truth about China’s trajectory in the region is more complex and nuanced. We need to understand what Russia’s role in the region is as a result of the war – it has become toxic – yet Russian assets there remain, such as intelligence services, while Russia has a deep understanding of Central Asia’s domestic politics in a way that China does not. Central Asia is a key transit ground for ensuring the flow of goods to Russia, so the region is not dramatically tilting away from Russia, and we should avoid the notion that Central Asian governments are pawns – they have a lot of individual agency. In his closing remarks, TDF Chair Barry Gardiner MP pointed to the apparent reason behind the creation of the C5 + 1in 2015: regional security, economic development and regional stability in Central Asia. But the raw truth, argued Gardiner, was that it was seen as a way for the US containment policy to reduce Russian influence in the region and to counteract the growing presence of China. Russia and China have a common interest in keeping the US out of their Central Asian back yard, but the C5 provides a perfect trade route through Central Asia, to undermine Western sanctions against Moscow and re-export Chinese goods to Russia. Music Beneath the Surface Song 1 of 2 Future 201809 27 Song 2 of 2 ARTIST South London HiFi ALBUM Beneath the Surface LICENSES Get YouTube Premium Youtube Library

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