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COVID-19 Human Challenge studies https://www.gov.uk/government/news/worlds-first-coronavirus-human-challenge-study-receives-ethics-approval-in-the-uk https://ukcovidchallenge.com/covid-19-volunteer-trials/ Specially convened Research Ethics Committee Convened by the HRA; it was not deemed by the MHRA to be within remit Imperial College London, Dr Chris Chiu, the chief investigator https://www.hra.nhs.uk https://www.hra.nhs.uk/about-us/news-updates/covid-19-human-infection-challenge-vaccine-studies/ Ninety, aged between 18 and 30 Test efficiency of vaccines Second generation vaccines Immunological reactions Transmission characteristics Viral infective dose Administered in liquid form, into the volunteer's nostrils Royal Free Hospital in north London Isolated room for two and a half weeks Then monitored for up to a year. Risk of outdoor transmission of Covid-19 is low Professor Mark Woolhouse, Infectious Disease Epidemiology, University of Edinburgh There's been very, very little evidence that any transmission outdoors is happening in the UK There were no outbreaks linked to crowded beaches Avoid pinch points, travel, cafes http://www.healthdata.org/sites/default/files/files/Projects/COVID/2021/102_briefing_United_States_of_America_0.pdf February 12, 2021 US daily cases have declined sharply Next four months, balance of four factors (Many different outcomes possible) Vaccination (71% prepared to accept) Declining seasonality, now until August Spread of variant B.1.1.7 Increased transmission behaviour Daily case decline, vaccination increases, = behaviors to increased transmission Infections are expected to increase after mid-March at least for 4-6 weeks Cases, decline until mid-March, then increase to over 200,000 again by early April Stress on hospital capacity in some states Deaths not increasing due to vaccination Deaths by 1st June Vaccinations, 145 million adults (preventing 114,000 deaths) Deaths, 616,000 Daily deaths should continue to decline Mask wearing, 76% (always wore a mask when leaving home) Universal mask coverage (95%) = 34,000 fewer cumulative deaths Unknown protection of previous infection to VOC B.1.351 Current situation 18% of people in the US have been infected as of February 8 59 million Cumulative infection rates greater than 25%: North Dakota, Nebraska, Iowa, and New York South Africa uses Johnson & Johnson Unused, 1 million doses of the Oxford/AstraZeneca First batch of 80,000 doses landed in the country from Brussels late Tuesday Single dose, stored in refrigerators US, Johnson & Johnson Only a few million doses in stock Committed to providing 100 million doses by June US, Pfizer and Moderna Promised to deliver 200 million doses by the end of March So far, 72 million doses have been shipped around the U.S HERA incubator programme EU proactive in second generation vaccine development Ursula von der Leyen The virus has evolved and will continue to evolve It is important we prepare for mutations Already-authorised, AstraZeneca, Pfizer/BioNTech, Moderna Johnson & Johnson, EMA by middle of March Croatia In talks for 1 -2 million doses of Sputnik V (Not yet been approved by EMA) Hungary is currently using Sputnik V Tourism needed South Africa Adrian Gore, CEO of health insurer Discovery The number of people who have been infected, in our view, is probably over 50% of the country Most of excess deaths attributable to Covid-19 National Blood Service Eastern Cape, 63% have been infected KwaZulu-Natal, 52% Taiwan Health minister Chen Shih-chung Crucial deal to acquire the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine had failed at the final step I was worried about interference from external forces I was worried about political pressure We believed there was political pressure The deal fell through... because someone doesn't want Taiwan to be too happy German firm BioNTech, struck a deal with Shanghai-based Fosun Pharmaceutical Group to bring the vaccine to China

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