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Ukrainian mobilisation & force generation - Featuring General Ben Hodges (Ret.) Analytics Table

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About Ukrainian mobilisation & force generation - Featuring General Ben Hodges (Ret.)

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Last week we talked about Russian mobilisation and what it might mean for Russian force generation this year and next - and in particular, I noted the fact that it was possible that the problems were resolved and new combat power was generated. In order to assess what impact that may have on the course of the war though Winter and into 2023, it's important to consider the Ukrainian side of the equation. The Ukrainians have been clear on their ambitions for next year, and set out what they believe their force requirements to be. So the question becomes - what are those requirements and can they meet them. In this episode, I explore that question, augmented by excerpts from an interview with the former commander of the US Army in Europe - LTG Ben Hodges (Ret.) Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PerunAU Caveats & Corrections: As stated in the video - I cannot thank Ben Hodges enough for agreeing to participate in this video. He has not reviewed the content of the episode and all views expressed by me remain mine and mine alone. At one point during this video I say that the US conducted a market survey of firms that could produce 16,000 shells per month - the correct figure is 12,000. I also refer to the supply of aircraft by Bulgaria. that supply was reportedly of aircraft parts. bulgaria has denied supplying full aircraft from inventory and given it continues to fly its aircraft I have good reason to believe that statement Sources: Article by Valery Zaluzhnyi & Mykhailo Zabrodskyi https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-ato/3566162-ak-zabezpeciti-voennu-kampaniu-u-2023-roci-ukrainskij-poglad.html US market survey of potential artillery producers: https://sam.gov/opp/90113cce8c9a452a93fc5c7db958dac2/view Credit to the regular OSINT channels who collect video and visual evidence of weapon systems, ammunition, and losses in Ukraine: Oryx - https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop Ukraine Weapons Tracker- https://twitter.com/UAWeapons?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor 1995 artillery shell inventory - intended to illustrate the fact that the USSR was not the only power to stock up on shells https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/GAOREPORTS-NSIAD-95-89/html/GAOREPORTS-NSIAD-95-89.htm CSIS piece on US weapons supply bottlenecks to Ukraine https://www.csis.org/analysis/united-states-running-out-weapons-send-ukraine Timestamps: 00:00:00 β€” Opening Words 00:01:40 β€” What Am I Covering? 00:03:14 β€” LTG Ben Hodges (Ret.) 00:04:16 β€” Ukraine Pre-February 00:05:29 β€” Wartime Evolution 00:07:28 β€” Force '23 - Ukraine's Military Objectives 00:08:37 β€” The Force Requirement 00:09:37 β€” Manpower vs Metal 00:10:46 β€” Interview pt.I: Ukrn Force Generation 00:11:34 β€” Interview pt.I: Answer 00:13:23 β€” Can It Be Done? 00:14:02 β€” Heavy Weapons 00:14:10 β€” Warsaw Standard 00:15:47 β€” Interview pt.II: Equipment 00:16:16 β€” Interview pt.II: Answer 00:18:51 β€” Nato Armour? 00:20:56 β€” Interview pt.III - Nato Armour? 00:21:20 β€” Interview pt.III - Answer 00:22:33 β€” Maintenance and Sustainment 00:23:33 β€” Russia's Own Advantages 00:24:28 β€” Interview pt.IV: Overcoming Maintenance and Sustainment Challenges 00:24:59 β€” Interview pt.IV: Answer 00:29:36 β€” Long Range Capabilities 00:32:12 β€” Munition & Shell Crisis 00:33:11 β€” Sustaining the Soviet(+) Systems 00:35:12 β€” Unconventional Sources 00:35:54 β€” Iran's Contribution? 00:37:20 β€” Nato Standard in Quantity 00:38:51 β€” Feeding The Guns 00:39:32 β€” Interview pt.V: Feeding The Guns 00:40:16 β€” Interview pt.V: Answer 00:44:02 β€” Case Study: US Industry Response 00:45:54 β€” Case Study: US Ammo Production 00:47:40 β€” Is Production up to the Task? 00:49:48 β€” Interview pt.VI: Is the West capable of sustaining Ukraine? 00:50:22 β€” Interview pt.VI: Answer 00:51:36 β€” The Force Generation Race 00:52:03 β€” What About the Russian Effort? 00:52:46 β€” Interview pt.VII: Russian and Ukrainian Mobilisation Assessment 00:53:10 β€” Interview pt.VII: Answer 00:54:17 β€” What About The Russian Effort? - Cont. 00:55:02 β€” Interview pt.VIII: Likely Failure Point for the Russian Military? 00:55:33 β€” Interview pt.VIII: Answer 00:59:57 β€” Who wins the Force Generation Race? 01:00:54 β€” Interview pt.IX: Final Reflections and Predictions 01:01:21 β€” Interview pt.IX: Answer 01:04:28 β€” Conclusions 01:06:42 β€” Channel Update

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