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Explore Oil Fell, Inflation Dropped, the Fed Got Hawkish: Make It Make Sense | Macro Monday! June 22, 2026 with 1,073 views, 10 likes, and 0 comments. Experience the impact of this video content that has captured audience attention.

Oil Fell, Inflation Dropped, the Fed Got Hawkish: Make It Make Sense Oil fell below $80 for the first time since March. The Strait of Hormuz just signed a reopening MOU. Inflation expectations are plummeting. The dollar is near a year high. And the brand-new Fed Chair just shocked markets by going hawkish, with the first rate HIKE now priced for September. Make it make sense. Oil's going down. Inflation's going down. And the Fed is hiking earlier. I feel like I'm taking crazy pills. Noah Rosenblatt and John Walkup unpack the most contradictory week of macro in months: Kevin Warsh's first FOMC press conference (called the "worst start for a Fed chair" in modern memory), 9 of 18 governors now projecting hikes, the terminal rate repriced to 4.00 to 4.25%, and yet mortgage rates are drifting DOWN. Plus, Manhattan supply at 1,323 vs. a 1,379 norm, contracts rolling over to 1,007 as the second half of June arrives, and a tale-of-two-markets field report where one team has every listing in a bidding war while another team has zero open house traffic on a $2.25M listing. Five Takeaways: 🤯 Bizarro week in macro: Oil down 7%, inflation expectations plummeting, dollar near a year high, stocks at record highs, AND the Fed turning hawkish. Either the bond market is right and rates roll over, or the Fed is and we get two hikes by year-end. Both can't be true. 🏦 Warsh's debut shocked the market: New Fed Chair went more hawkish than anyone expected. 9 of 18 governors now project a hike. Eased bias removed entirely. S&P tanked on the news. First hike now priced for September. 📉 And yet mortgage rates went DOWN after the meeting: Conforming at 6.5%, jumbo at 6.7%, with the tenor compressing. The bond market may be telling a different story than the dot plot. Watch this week's print. 🟢 NYC spring still doing market stuff: Manhattan contracts above 1,000 for the longest streak since 2022. Supply below seasonal. The shape held. Now we transition to the back half of June, July gravity, and the seller exhaustion window. 🗺️ Tale of two markets has never been clearer: Berman team had every listing in a bidding war (Lincoln Square studio, West 76 one and two-beds). Robin had zero open house traffic on $2.25M and $1.27M. Brooklyn: white hot or ice cold. Price, location, condition. The trifecta is the read. Why This Episode Matters If you're a buyer, seller, or agent in NYC right now, this is one of the most divergent macro setups in years. The Fed says one thing. The bond market says another. The local market is splitting harder than ever between hot and cold blocks. Real-time data on your tier and your property type is the only way to read what's actually happening. Get the same Manhattan and Brooklyn dashboards Noah and John pull up live every Monday at urbandigs.com. Have skin in the game and want independent pricing intelligence on your specific deal? UrbanDigs Advisor gives you the read with no broker incentives and no agenda, just senior NYC market expertise applied to the property in front of you. Start at urbandigs.co today! Subscribe and hit the 🔔 so you never miss a Macro Monday. Don't miss this Wednesday, June 24, 2026: Wednesday at 11am: Jason Haber joins to break down the pied-à-terre tax, COPPA, and the latest election results. Bring your questions. Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction & Macro Monday Overview 01:10 Manhattan Real Estate Market Snapshot 03:15 Spring Market Momentum & Seasonal Trends 06:00 Best Time to List a Property 08:20 Summer Slowdown & Buyer Activity 10:05 Transition to Macro Economy 10:40 Credit Spreads & Market Risk Analysis 14:15 Federal Reserve Update & Interest Rate Outlook 18:20 Mortgage Rates vs Fed Policy 21:10 Inflation, Oil Prices & Market Expectations 25:05 Terminal Rate Predictions & Future Rate Hikes 28:15 U.S. Dollar, Inflation & Global Economy 30:20 Manhattan Housing Market Outlook 32:15 NYC Investment Thesis Explained 34:10 Buyer Demand, Bidding Wars & Market Feedback 36:10 July & August Real Estate Forecast 37:15 Final Takeaways & Upcoming UrbanDigs Events ==================================== 👉 NYC Real Estate Investment Thesis Part 2 with special guest Noam Newman https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n9BExXdqhC4&t=40s 👉 Manhattan vs America: The Off-Market Chart That Tells the Real Story https://www.youtube.com/live/tEEo5h5z21Q 👉 Manhattan Has Done 5% in a Decade Is the Channel Is About to Break? https://www.youtube.com/live/Pv813jt7Xjs ==================================== #nycrealestate #manhattanmarket #brooklynhomes #housingupdate #realestatepodcast #marketwatch #propertynews #homebuyers #homesellers #housinginventory #mortgagerates2025 #marketcycles

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