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Explore It's All Downhill from Here with 104,667 views, 1,822 likes, and 330 comments. Experience the impact of this video content that has captured audience attention.

Tech stocks are selling off and everyone is asking whether the AI bubble is about to burst. My argument is that it already has, and most people are watching the wrong market. In this video I explain the difference between the equity market and the bond market using a simple left-brain/right-brain analogy: 🧠 Right brain = the share market. It’s the storyteller. It’s driven by sentiment and vision, and it’s very optimistic about the future. Shareholders have unlimited upside, so a good story is worth money to them. 🧠 Left brain = the bond market. It’s the accountant. It asks about cash flow, timing, and what happens if the money doesn’t arrive. Bondholders have capped upside, so the story matters less to them than the ability to repay. History says the bond market sees it first: Dot-com bubble: Credit markets were showing stress as early as 1998, two years before the Nasdaq peaked in March 2000. Global Crossing and WorldCom (then the largest bankruptcy in US history) followed. Global Financial Crisis: The ABX subprime index was falling hard in early 2007. New Century Financial collapsed, Bear Stearns funds failed and BNP Paribas froze three funds. The S&P 500 still hit a record high in October 2007. What the bond market is saying about AI today: • Hyperscalers can no longer fund AI out of cash flow. They borrowed about $17B in 2024 and nearly $200B in the first half of 2026. • CoreWeave’s unsecured debt has traded at yields around 16%. • Oracle’s 2032 bonds are trading around 75 cents on the dollar. • Local opposition to data centres is growing, and it’s bipartisan. It became a campaign issue in the US midterms. AI is real, just as the internet was. Bubbles rarely get the destination wrong. They get the timing wrong. Shares have no maturity date, but debt does. When the cash flows arrive later than expected, lenders want repayment, and that’s when things can come apart quickly.

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