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The unknown is by how much, as the UK reopens, it is going to be a difficult summer Neil Ferguson, (SAGE member) England and Scotland have eases restrictions Almost all legal restrictions on social contact end in England Almost certain to reach 100,000 cases per day 1,000 hospital admissions per day Maintaining this level could be described as success Possible to reach 200,000 cases per day 2,000 hospital admissions per day This would cause major disruption to the NHS Much less certain to predict May be a need to slow the spread to some extent If hospital admissions were to reach 2,000 or 3,000 per day Best projections Peak, between August and mid-September It will take 3 weeks to know effects of easing Covid passports In the UK from end of September Long Covid Another 500,000mpeople could get long Covid I think case numbers are likely to be declining at least by late September, even in the the worst-case scenario Going into the winter, I think we will have quite a high degree of immunity against Covid, the real concerns are a resurgence of influenza, because we haven't had any influenza for 18 months Flu could be, frankly, almost as damaging both for health and the health system, by December or January, as Covid has been this year Pingdemic Health Secretary Sajid Javid positive Doubled jabbed, pinged Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57878345 Rising exponentially W/E 7th July 500,000 alerts sent to NHS Test and Trace app users Up 46% on previous week Pinging level is about 3:1 of Covid cases From 16 August Fully vaccinated will not have to self-isolate if they are pinged Instead advised to take PCR test ASAP Supermarket boss The clock is ticking and the government needs to act fast to get people back to work if they have a negative test If not, we could be heading towards crisis point next month Morrisons Throughout the whole of the pandemic, we have not been required to close a store British Retail Consortium Government must bring forward the changes on self-isolation from 16 August so that people who are fully vaccinated or have a negative test are not forced to needlessly quarantine The Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI) https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57876608 12 to 17s soon Vulnerable 12 to 15-year-olds and those nearly 18 Jeremy Hunt the government was likely to have to reintroduce some controls in the autumn Hospital admissions, NHS was facing a very serious situation Prof Jonathan Van-Tam Bumpy winter ahead Approach the easing, in a cautious, steady, gradual way

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