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Could the ANC lose more votes—and still hold on to power in South Africa’s biggest cities? The latest election polls point to a fragmented political landscape. Sizwe Mpofu-Walsh breaks down the national picture using the SMWX Election Lab, before examining the battles for Johannesburg, Tshwane, Ekurhuleni, eThekwini, Nelson Mandela Bay and Buffalo City. We explore where the DA and MK Party are challenging the ANC, how smaller parties could shape coalition governments, and why winning more wards does not necessarily mean winning more council seats. We also unpack the ANC’s Constitutional Court battle with the IEC over candidate nominations—and what it could mean for voters and representation. How much can these polls really tell us? And who could turn electoral support into governing power? Explore the polling data and methodology: https://smwx-election-polling-2026.vv0.chatgpt.site/ Subscribe to SMWX for independent analysis of South African politics. #SMWX #LocalElections2026 #SouthAfrica Pace Car Rental: www.pacecarrental.co.za Become a YouTube Member of SMWX: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCk_qa4ssROH8aUDbgQXE5dA/join Visit the SMWX store for merch and books: https://smwx.store CONTACT: ✉️: [email protected] Visit our website: smwx.africa _______ Credits: Director and DOP: Nomaan Haarzavi for Narr8 Studio Lead Camera Operator: Faizan Haq for Narr8 Studio 2nd Camera Operator: Yusuf Rahman for Narr8 Studio Producer: Oratile Kekana 00:00 – Introduction 00:14 – Pace Car Rental 00:42 – What to expect from the election 01:30 – How the polling averages were calculated 02:45 – ANC’s national support 03:31 – DA’s growth and electoral ceiling 04:44 – MK Party holds its ground 05:28 – EFF’s polling position 06:08 – Johannesburg and the election bet 08:42 – Johannesburg’s coalition scenarios 10:29 – Tshwane and a possible ANC–DA deal 12:26 – Ekurhuleni’s fragmented race 13:38 – eThekwini and MK’s coalition options 15:29 – Buffalo City and Mangaung 17:04 – How ward and proportional seats work 19:19 – Ward strongholds and seat overhang 20:44 – ANC falling, opposition stagnating 21:36 – Closing remarks

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