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Deaths in China Abrupt U-turn on COVID controls on 7th December Only people who died of respiratory failure were counted Jiao Yahui, Bureau of Medical Administration Between 8 December and 12 January, 59,938 Covid hospital deaths Deaths from respiratory failure, 5,500 Rest also had underlying health conditions Average age of death, 80 90.1% aged 65 + Lunar new year holiday, travel has started (21 January) Daily number going to fever clinics Peaked at 2.9 million on 23rd December Last Thursday, 477,000 visits Professor Ma Jingjing, Peking University https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Coronavirus/China-s-cumulative-COVID-cases-hit-900m-over-60-of-population-estimate Infections, 900 million (64% of population) Major cities, infection rates, 70% to 90% Infection rates up to 91% in some provinces Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention Stopped publishing infections last week Infection fatality rate 900 million infections, 59,938 deaths One death per 15,015 infections IFR = 0.006 More pessimistic estimates of 1 million deaths (1.4 billion) One death per 1,400 infections IFR = 0.0714 WHO welcomes data on COVID-19 in China, meeting with Minister https://www.who.int/news/item/14-01-2023-who-welcomes-data-on-covid-19-in-china--meeting-with-minister Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus and Minister Ma Xiaowei, China’s National Health Commission The overall epidemiology—reflecting a rapid and intense wave of disease caused by known sub-variants of Omicron Omicron sublineages BA.5.2 and BF.7 (BA.5.2.1.7) Arriving soon https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1128554/variant-technical-briefing-49-11-january-2023.pdf XBB.1.5. CH.1.1 with higher clinical impact on older people and those with underlying conditions, is similar to waves of infection experienced by other countries Will China will become endemic? UK, Zoe prevalence is 1 in 26 England, ONS prevalence is 1 in 25

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