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The US economy is about to hit a hard wall characterized by two core parameters: energy costs and interest rates. Obviously, there's massive inflation coming from a physical shortage of oil and gas that no longer transit the Hormuz strait (not to mention other important commodities like fertilizer or helium for microchip fabrication). Yet the day-trader who helped George Soros "Break the Bank of England", Scott Bessent, currently employed as US Treasury Secretary in his infinite wisdom thinks we can outlast Iran, as we shut down massive amounts of trade, especially in energy. The interest rates on 30-year US Treasuries just hit a 19-year high of 5.31%, which is unaffordable. That's why Mr. Bessent sent $10B to Japan -- so they would not sell any US Treasuries. The FX market in these Treasuries is now de facto illiquid for Japan and Europe, you could say the market is breaking in real time. The energy cost pass-through is inevitable. I expect average US gas prices to be well above $5 by the end of October. The high gas prices and high interest rates are going to bring inflation and other problems like we have not seen ... since at least 2009. I suspect it will be far worse. The amount of energy lost from the market is much greater than during the Arab oil embargo in the 1970's which tripled gas prices. It takes a particularly obtuse man to fail to put these pieces together. Whom will Bessent blame when the disaster is apparent?

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