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Jet fuel is up 111% on last year, and air cargo is heading into peak season with capacity already tight. In this month’s rates update, Mike King talks to Neil Wilson, editor of TAC Index, calculating agent for the Baltic Air Freight Indices, about what the latest data is telling us. Neil explains why the BAI00 global index is still up 24.3% year on year despite a slight dip over Golden Week. He says e-commerce players and product launches have mostly booked their peak space, but the hyperscalers haven’t yet, which leaves room for rates to rise further. We also look at how sharply the main lanes have split. Hong Kong to the US is up 31.1% year on year, already as high as or higher than the last two peak seasons. Hong Kong to Europe is up only 12.2%, despite volumes falling close to 30% since the EU’s de minimis change in July. Transatlantic rates are up 48.9%, amid talk of some cargo passing through Europe on its way to the US, and Europe to China is up 45.6%. On costs, jet fuel rose another 3% in the week to 9 October on IATA’s Jet Fuel Price Monitor, leaving it 111% up year on year. Neil explains how refining disruption in Russia and the Middle East is adding to the pain, and why fuel is now putting a hard floor under rates. In this video The BAI00 global index after Golden Week Why hyperscalers could push peak season rates higher Hong Kong to the US versus Hong Kong to Europe Transatlantic rates and pass-through trade Europe to China Jet fuel up 111%, and what it means for rates Watch the full October episode of Air Cargo Unpacked, Peak Season, Wartime Costs: https://youtu.be/TJwYZQp7K0g Rates data courtesy of TAC Index and the Baltic Exchange. Jet fuel data: IATA Jet Fuel Price Monitor, week to 9 October 2026. Subscribe for more from the Freight Buyers’ Club, and follow us on LinkedIn. #AirCargo #JetFuel #FreightRates #AirFreight #PeakSeason #TACIndex #BalticExchange #FreightBuyersClub

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