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As coalition negotiations progress, we unpack the possibility of various permutations, some that include and some that exclude the DA and ANC. What are the implications for the ANC and DA's relationship and the GNU? Dr Sizwe Mpofu-Walsh unpacks. Become a YouTube Member of SMWX: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCk_qa4ssROH8aUDbgQXE5dA/join Visit the SMWX store for merch and books: https://smwx.store CONTACT: ✉️: [email protected] Visit our website: smwx.africa _______ Credits: Director and DOP: Nomaan Haarzavi for Narr8 Studio Lead Camera Operator: Faizan Haq for Narr8 Studio 2nd Camera Operator: Yusuf Rahman for Narr8 Studio Producer: Oratile Kekana ______ 00:00 – Introduction 00:58 – Mashaba rules out working with Helen Zille 01:24 – The coalition scenarios emerging after the election 02:06 – Why an ActionSA–DA deal looks increasingly unlikely 03:05 – The ANC–ActionSA coalition scenario 03:46 – What a broader Gauteng coalition could look like 04:55 – Could excluding the DA destabilise the GNU? 05:49 – Different coalitions nationally and locally? 06:16 – Could South African politics completely realign? 07:28 – The alternative: a nationwide ANC–DA deal 08:34 – The ANC’s mayoral candidate problem 09:21 – How many Gauteng mayorships could the ANC lose? 09:56 – Could an ANC–DA deal extend across the metros? 10:29 – Which coalition can govern more councils? 11:34 – The ANC’s difficult coalition choice 12:00 – Is the DA benefiting more from the GNU? 12:56 – The risks of the Tshwane-style coalition model 13:33 – Why the ANC is divided on its next move 14:02 – ActionSA and the “doomsday coalition” argument 14:59 – Competing factions inside the ANC 15:31 – Why the ANC NEC meeting matters 16:19 – The two most likely coalition outcomes 16:53 – Fikile Mbalula on the ANC’s coalition position 17:41 – MK’s growing role in coalition negotiations 18:17 – Why the DA has fewer coalition options 18:43 – Which coalition scenarios are gaining momentum? 18:57 – Closing remarks

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