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Seven AfD candidates died prior to the 2025 local elections in North Rhine Westphalia (NRW), scheduled for September 14, 2025 Correction, the probability of at least four deaths is approximately one in seventy eight thousand, (78,740) not 1 in 78 https://www.news.com.au/finance/work/leaders/six-candidates-from-germanys-rightwing-afd-die-weeks-before-election-sparking-conspiracy-theories/news-story/0d489be7fe3970e4683a8fcb2cdec3dd https://gfrei.news/north-rhine-westphalia-death-of-the-candidates/?utm_source=chatgpt.com AfD Candidates Who Died Before the 2025 NRW Elections https://gfrei.news/north-rhine-westphalia-death-of-the-candidates/?utm_source=chatgpt.com Wolfgang Seitz (59) 16 August 2025, heart attack Wolfgang Klinger (71) 19 August 2025, natural causes Stefan Berendes (59) 27 August 2025, ? sudden cardiac arrest, natural causes, kept secret for privacy reasons Ralph Klaus Norbert Lange (66) 28 August 2025, presumed heart attack René Herford (reserve) 1 September 2025, kidney disease Patrick Tietze (42) (reserve) 1 September 2025, Suicide Hans Joachim Kind Early September, natural causes https://gfrei.news/north-rhine-westphalia-death-of-the-candidates/?utm_source=chatgpt.com No evidence of foul play Police and authorities have explicitly ruled out suspicious circumstances in all six cases https://www.news.com.au/finance/work/leaders/six-candidates-from-germanys-rightwing-afd-die-weeks-before-election-sparking-conspiracy-theories/news-story/0d489be7fe3970e4683a8fcb2cdec3dd?utm_source=chatgpt.com The extreme improbability Factors: Tight time frame of the two waves Restricted pool of all candidates Age-specific probability of death Above-average health of political candidates. Tight geographical cluster German economist, Stefan Homburg “statistically virtually impossible” https://x.com/i/grok/share/xfRCpWaGBsPa1W8R9vs81KRV2?utm_source=chatgpt.com AfD deputy leader (MP) Stephan Brandner “statistically striking and difficult to explain at the moment”. “I’ve never heard of politicians from a party dying in such a short period of time before an election,” Statistical anomaly noted The cluster of six deaths within a short period, concentrated on one party, The probability of at least four deaths is approximately 0,0000127 or 0,00127% (1 in 78.740) https://lab-news.de/en/haeufung-von-afd-todesfaellen-statistisch-extrem-unwahrscheinlich/?utm_source=chatgpt.com Wave 1 (July / early August) Opposition candidates FDP, UWG, Party for Animal Protection, Free Voters, Voter Group SG Zukunft. Observation: 5 deaths in approx. 3 weeks. Wave 2 (mid/late August to 1 September) Almost exclusively AfD – Seitz, Klinger, Berendes, Lange, Herford, Tietze (plus Uwe Philippsen / list “Volksabstimmung”). Observation: 7 deaths in approx. 3 weeks. G Frei News analysis https://gfrei.news/author/gfrei123/ Final result after the healthy-candidate effect Wave 1 (opposition, ≥ 5): 1 : 5,809 Wave 2 (AfD, ≥ 6): 1 : 247,351 Two waves in sequence: 1 : 1,437,176,086 Short form: ≈ 1 : 1.44 billion This means the double cluster clearly lies in the billion range of improbability. That precisely explains why comparable cases (e.g., “four deaths before an election”) are virtually never documented historically. These deaths have disrupted the electoral process, invalidating ballots in affected districts and requiring reprints and new nominations. The 2024 United Kingdom general election, Thursday, 4 July 2024 Tommy Cawkwell, an RNLI volunteer, Reform UK died after being selected candidate for York Central “passed away suddenly”, age 41, stroke https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC6529851/?utm_source=chatgpt.com Men who died from stroke, average age at death, 79 years Elections for the U.S. House of Representatives, November 5, 2024, Jennifer Pace, Republican, age 59, cardiovascular disease

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