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Explore $50M to $10B in Five Months with No Revenue (Instinct) with 127,033 views, 1,590 likes, and 82 comments. Experience the impact of this video content that has captured audience attention.

$50M in April. $500M in August. $2.5B three weeks after that. And this week, $10B. Revenue: zero. The founder is 23 and doesn’t want to charge anyone. I run a seed fund that only backs YC startups, so pricing companies at this stage is basically my job. I’ve never seen one move like this. Not in 2021, not ever. But the number isn’t the story. One of the firms that set the $2.5B price in August is the same firm setting the $10B price now. Same firm, four times the price, under a month. It’s completely legal and it happens all the time. I’ll show you how it works. Some of what we cover: -Every round Instinct raised, every investor, every price, in order -Noah Shinn registered the company in April and hit a $2.5B valuation before most people knew his name -How a fund quadruples its own position on paper in three weeks, and what that does to its pitch deck -MOIC, TVPI, DPI, and why only one of them is real money -The three tests I use, run against Instinct. One clear pass, one clear problem, one I can’t call -A free product that burns money on every message, where your heaviest users cost you the most -Meta shipped a free assistant called Muse on September 8th with 3.5 billion users behind it -The actual bull case, which is a bet on where compute costs are going, not where they are -Cognition went from $26B to $48B in four months. This pace is somehow normal now -What the seed investors made, and why being early beat being obvious again TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 $50M To $10B In Five Months 01:20 Every Round, In Order 02:30 The $500M Series A 03:00 $2.5B, Three Weeks Later 03:40 $10B And 200x For The Seed 04:00 The Mechanic Nobody Explains 05:00 Paper Money vs Real Money 06:15 Is There A Business Here? 06:45 Test 1: The Market 07:15 Test 2: The Margin Problem 08:15 Test 3: The Moat 08:45 The Bull Case 09:30 What Founders Should Take From This 10:00 A Paper Mark Is Not Money -- Disclaimer: The information provided in this video is for general informational purposes only and is not intended to be financial advice. I am not a licensed financial advisor. Any actions you take based on the information presented are at your own risk. Please consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.

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