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Nickel’s Long-Term Bull Cycle Gains Momentum Amid Supply Constraints Analytics Table

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About Nickel’s Long-Term Bull Cycle Gains Momentum Amid Supply Constraints

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Recording date: 12th May 2026 The global nickel market is showing notable stability, with prices holding within a narrow band of $18,500 to $20,000 per ton and currently hovering just below $19,000. This resilience is largely driven by structural changes in supply management, particularly from Indonesia, the world’s dominant nickel producer. In coordination with the Philippines, Indonesia has adopted policies to better control supply and support pricing, marking a shift away from historically volatile market dynamics. A key feature of Indonesia’s strategy is the redistribution of value within the supply chain. Domestic mining companies now receive roughly 50% higher revenues per ton of ore, while government tax intake has increased significantly. These gains have largely come at the expense of foreign—especially Chinese—processing firms. The alignment of economic interests among miners and policymakers makes these policies difficult to reverse, reinforcing a higher long-term price floor. At the same time, the nickel market faces a deep structural supply constraint. Despite demand rising tenfold since the 1980s to nearly five million tons annually, there have been no major new laterite discoveries. Most viable reserves remain concentrated in Indonesia, limiting diversification of global supply. Western project pipelines are especially thin, with few advanced developments competing for investment capital. Amid this backdrop, Canada Nickel has reached a major milestone, completing draft permitting requirements after a four-year process and targeting final approval in early summer. This positions the project to benefit from Canada’s recently announced $25 billion funding initiative for critical minerals. Meanwhile, industry developments—including sanctions impacting Sherritt’s Cuban operations and progress in deep-sea mining—highlight both geopolitical risks and emerging alternatives. Overall, constrained supply, strategic policy shifts, and limited new projects point to a supportive medium-term outlook for nickel prices. Sign up for Crux Investor: https://cruxinvestor.com

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