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UK Prepare now for a winter COVID-19 peak, Academy of Medical Sciences, 14th July 37 excerpts https://acmedsci.ac.uk/more/news/prepare-now-for-a-winter-covid-19-peak-warns-academy-of-medical-sciences Preparations to avoid second wave worst-case scenario in NHS hospitals must start now COVID-19 is more likely to spread in winter More time indoors Virus able to survive longer in colder, darker winter conditions. Problems Disruption already created Backlog of patients Possibility of a flu epidemic Other infectious diseases Asthma, heart attack, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and stroke Overlapping symptoms of COVID-19, flu and other winter infections Internal redeployments Slower with reduced throughput capacity Risk of the health service being overwhelmed Actions Minimising transmission in the community Public information campaign for all Tailored to individuals and communities at high risk Comprehensive, near real-time, population-wide surveillance system Flu vaccination, concerted effort Minimise coronavirus and flu transmission everywhere Track, trace and isolate programme ready for winter Shielding Hospitals and care homes COVID-19 and COVID-19-free zones Ensure there is adequate PPE System-wide infection control, minimise transmission in hospital and other residential care settings Factors High degree of uncertainty about how epidemic will evolve Rt 1.7 from September 2020 onwards Peak in hospital admissions and deaths in January and February 2021 September 2020 to June 2021, 119,900 hospital-based deaths (excluding care homes) Government would act to reduce the transmission rate Dexamethasone (and heparin) Need for immediate action It must be done now Masks mandated in shops in England from 24th July. Already mandatory in shops in Scotland. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/13/face-masks-shops-england-24-july-boris-johnson Germany, Spain, Italy and Greece, have already made it compulsory YouGov poll UK , 36% Spain, 86% Italy, 83% France, 78% Germany, 65%

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