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The top 10 causes of death https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/the-top-10-causes-of-death 56.9 million deaths worldwide in 2016 54% were due to the top 10 causes Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation Independent global health research organization University of Washington School of Medicine Rigorous and comparable measurement, world’s health problems, evaluates strategies http://www.healthdata.org/covid/updates Global Review Cases are remaining constant 250,000 per day since August Approximately one infection in 10 has been detected globally to date 31, 483,001 = 314, 830, 010 Assuming 1,000,000 deaths IFR = 0.32 Daily deaths are decline Just over 5,000 a day in the last week Making COVID-19 the sixth-leading cause of global mortality Progress in Latin America except Argentina Surging cases in Europe Continued epidemic expansion in India Expect Decreasing vigilance of the public in many countries Northern Hemisphere seasonality will lead to a major global surge in daily cases Deaths increasing late November and December. Projections 30,000 deaths a day in December January 1, 2021, total deaths, 2,667,497 Fourth leading cause of death Herd immunity strategy Up to 70% of individuals can get infected in a situation of near-random mixing Actual percentage probably less No further government action when the winter surge begins in the Northern Hemisphere Deaths by January 1, a total of 3,618,640. Mask use can save more than 730,000 lives by January 1 43% of the deaths expected between now and the end of 2020 More on herd immunity Multiple locations in Latin America are now at over 40% Ecuador and Mexico City Indicating percentages increase to at least these levels With herd immunity at 40% cumulative infection Highly optimistic Less than one quarter through the epidemic on January 1 10.4 million deaths With herd immunity at 50% cumulative infection 13.1 million deaths Only if we end the pandemic everywhere can we end the pandemic anywhere. https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus Having flu and Covid-19 together https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/22/flu-and-covid-19-at-same-time-significantly-increases-risk-of-death#img-1 Prof Jonathan Van-Tam Significantly increases risk of death Double whammy n = 58 people UK, early phase of the pandemic. Hospitalised Tested for both viruses Very ill Coinfection, deaths, 43% COVID only, deaths, 26.9% If you do think you have either flu or Co Vi D stay at home and self-isolate 30, 000, 000 doses of flu vac 50-64 will be offered flu vaccination Children 2 – 11 Essential workers

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