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International spread, B.1.617.2 https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20210512-indian-covid-19-variant-found-in-44-countries-around-world-says-who 44 countries Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation, Professor Anthony Harnden https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/coronavirus-news-covid-india-variant-uk-vaccine-cases-lockdown/ Vaccines are almost certainly less effective at reducing transmission of the Indian variant The vaccines may be less effective against mild disease but we don't think they're less effective against severe disease all the evidence so far suggests there is no evidence of increased severity of illness or that the variant evades the vaccine Kolkata https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-asia-india-57106648 There are currently five VOCs in the United States https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/transmission/variant.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/transmission/variant-cases.html B.1.1.7: UK B.1.351: SA P.1: Brazil B.1.427 and B.1.429: California UK official numbers of B.1.617.2 https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-variants-genomically-confirmed-case-numbers/variants-distribution-of-cases-data#Variant12 UK, B.1.617.2 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57119579 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57126318 SAGE, now confident it is more transmissible than existing variants Not sure how much Prof Chris Whitty That's a really critical question to which we do not yet have the answer SAGE, realistic possibility it could be 50% Probably will become the dominant strain in the UK Outbreak, south Glasgow Scotland, 35 Northern Ireland, 12 Wales, 11 Sage report 13th May, 89th meeting https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/986564/S1236_Eighty-nineth_SAGE_meeting.pdf R rate England 0.8 – 1.1 Wales, 0.7 – 1 Scotland, 0.8 – 1.0 NI, 0.8 – 1.1 There are now multiple fast-growing clusters of this variant in the UK Largest in the northwest of England Observed doubling times are around a week Places where transmission of this variant is occurring have different characteristics to each other Plausible biological reasons as to why some of the mutations present could make this variant more transmissible In the areas where numbers of infections are increasing rapidly under the measures currently in place, an even faster increase can be expected if measures are relaxed (high confidence) If this variant were to have a 40-50% transmission advantage nationally compared to B.1.1.7, indicate that it is likely that progressing with step 3 alone would lead to a substantial resurgence of hospitalisations (similar to, or larger than, previous peaks) Progressing with both steps 3 and 4 at the earliest dates could lead to a much larger peak SAGE and immune escape May be some reduction in protection given by vaccines or by naturally acquired immunity from past infection, though data on this are still mixed. Any such reduction is likely to affect protection against infection more than protection against severe disease or death not yet any clear evidence of any difference in disease severity following infection with this variant (rapid sequencing of hospitalised cases and infections post vaccination is important) JCVI continues to review the evidence on different vaccination strategies.

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