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Serious adverse events of special interest following mRNA COVID-19 vaccination in randomized trials in adult https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/36055877/ Free full text available https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9428332/ 3.4. Harm-benefit considerations In the Moderna trial, the excess risk of serious AESIs was 15.1 per 10,000 participant One in 662 (over placebo baselines) In the Pfizer trial, the excess risk of serious AESIs 10.1 per 10,000 One in 990 (over placebo baselines) Combined, mRNA vaccines, risk of serious adverse events of special interest 12.5 per 10,000 vaccinated One in 800 (over placebo baselines) 1,250 serious events for each million vaccine recipients Appendix 1: estimation of number needed to vaccinate to prevent a COVID-19 hospitalisation, for primary vaccination, booster vaccination (3rd dose), autumn 2022 booster and, spring 2023 booster (for those newly in a risk group) (Published 25 January 2023) https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1131409/appendix-1-of-jcvi-statement-on-2023-covid-19-vaccination-programme-8-november-2022.pdf Calculation of numbers needed to vaccinate (NNV) Table 3: NNV for prevention of hospitalisation for different programmes 20 – 29 Years, Autumn booster No risk group, 169,200 (706,500) In a risk group, 7,500 (59,500) 50 – 59 Years, Autumn booster No risk group, 43,600 (256,400) In a risk group, 3,100 (18,600) 60 – 69 years, Autumn booster 3,600 (27,300) 70 + Autumn booster 800 (7,500) Table 1: rates per million of COVID-19 hospitalisation (rates are for July 2022) 1,250 serious events for each million vaccine recipients Table 1: rates per million of COVID-19 severe hospitalisation (rates are for July 2022) 1,250 serious events for each million vaccine recipients Based on a UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) presentation to the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI) on 25 October 2022.

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