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Putting belief to the test, LITERATURE REVIEW AND META-ANALYSIS OF THE EFFECTS OF LOCKDOWNS ON COVID-19 MORTALITY, January 2022, Studies in Applied Economics. Bio plausibility is not always correct when applied Early epidemiological studies predicted large effects of NPIs. Imperial College London, Ferguson et al. (2020) predicted that suppression strategy based on a lockdown would reduce COVID-19 mortality by up to 98%. Ferguson, Neil M, Daniel Laydon, Gemma Nedjati-Gilani, Natsuko Imai, Kylie Ainslie, Marc Baguelin, Sangeeta Bhatia, et al. 2020. “Impact of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) to Reduce COVID- 19 Mortality and Healthcare Demand,” March, 20. https://sites.krieger.jhu.edu/iae/files/2022/01/A-Literature-Review-and-Meta-Analysis-of-the-Effects-of-Lockdowns-on-COVID-19-Mortality.pdf Systematic review and meta-analysis To determine whether there is empirical evidence to support the belief that “lockdowns” reduce COVID-19 mortality. Lockdowns The imposition of at least one compulsory, non-pharmaceutical intervention (NPI). NPIs Government mandates Limit internal movement, close schools and businesses, ban international travel. This study Systematic search and screening procedure 18,590 studies identified After three levels of screening, 34 studies ultimately qualified. Of those 34 eligible studies, 24 qualified for inclusion in the meta-analysis. Three groups of study Lockdown stringency index studies Shelter-in-place- order (SIPO) studies Specific NPI studies Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT) The nine metrics used to calculate the Stringency Index are: school closures; workplace closures; cancellation of public events; restrictions on public gatherings; closures of public transport; stay-at-home requirements; public information campaigns; restrictions on internal movements; and international travel controls. A higher score indicates a stricter response (i.e. 100 = strictest response). 186 countries covered Countries with more than one million citizens are included, 153 countries in tota. An analysis of each of these three groups support the conclusion that lockdowns have had little to no effect on COVID-19 mortality. Stringency index studies Find that lockdowns in Europe and the United States only reduced COVID-19 mortality by 0.2% on average. Shelter-in-place- order (SIPO) studies SIPOs were also ineffective, only reducing COVID-19 mortality by 2.9% on average. Specific NPI studies also find no broad-based evidence of noticeable effects on COVID-19 mortality. Conclusion While this meta-analysis concludes that lockdowns have had little to no public health effects, they have imposed enormous economic and social costs where they have been adopted. In consequence, lockdown policies are ill-founded and should be rejected as a pandemic policy instrument. Critique We exclude papers which analyze the effect of early lockdowns in contrast to later lockdowns. Retrospective study Pick your own end points Vast array of differing countries and circumstances E.g. compliance in US, Germany, Italy, China Inferences from past to the future Pandemic fatigue Herby (2021) illustrates, voluntary behavior changes are essential to a society’s response to an pandemic, account for up to 90% of societies’ total response to the pandemic Written by economists, principle, damage that lockdowns did to the economy Were papers chosen to support the theme? Most of the papers used were by economists, not scientists or medical people Outcomes were solely deaths, did not include 'cases, hospitalizations or other measures’ Those who were going to die were going to die whether you locked down or not The disease itself and the fitness of the patients was largely the determinant Do not consider the wider factors that could also have affected the economy had there not been lockdowns E.g. mayhem would have ensued for hospital capacity and routine medical care without lockdowns Retrospectoscope This debate may follow party lines Growing anti-science feeling in the US A future epidemic agent could have totally different characteristics Bella Omicron today keeps the Delta away

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