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ONS, W/E 26th June https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26 Community prevalence 0.39% in England (1 in 260 people) 0.22% in Wales (1 in 450 people) 0.15% in Northern Ireland (1 in 670 people) 0.68% in Scotland (1 in 150 people) Alpha and Delta in England ONS and COVID-19 reinfections, (June 29th) Defining second infection A new positive test 90 days or more after an initial first positive test A new positive test following four consecutive negative tests Rare Milder than initial infections Rate of asymptomatics in first and second infections Reinfected less likely to report symptoms First infection Asymptomatic 21.8% Second infection Asymptomatic 57.1% COVID-19 Infection Survey The strength of an infection is measured by a cycle threshold (Ct) value. Positive results with a low Ct value (30 or less) Episodes of infection with a higher viral load More likely to be ill More infectious Positive results with a high Ct value (30 or more) Indicate a lower viral load Less likely to be ill Less infectious Initial infections Most people, low Ct value (higher viral load) Reinfections High Ct value (lower viral load) CT values Impact of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Viral Load on Risk of Intubation and Mortality Among Hospitalized Patients With Coronavirus Disease 2019 (Clinical Infectious Diseases) https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa851/5865363 n = 678 hospitalized patients CT value of 25 or less (high viral load) Mortality, 35% CT value of 25 to 30 (medium viral load) Mortality, 17.7% CT value above 30 (low viral load) Mortality, 6.2% US Cases up 9.1% in past 7 days https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html Of which 25% delta Variants of interest Variants of concern Variants of high consequence Adults with at least one dose of vaccine Alabama, 50% Wyoming, 50% Virgin Islands, 49% Louisiana, 48% Mississippi, 46% 1,000 worst counties, 30% of adults with one dose or less https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/variants/variant-info.html https://www.nbcnews.com/science/science-news/delta-delta-variants-everything-need-know-rcna1281 Europe https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-57676408 Decline in cases over the past 10 weeks Hans Kluge, WHO Europe new wave in the WHO European region unless we remain disciplined mixing, travel, easing restrictions Spain Steep rise in 20s Russia Deaths, + 672 UK Cases, + 26,068 + 27,125 (highest since 29th January) https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk Freedom day, too simplistic David Nabarro https://www.independent.co.uk/news/coronavirus-news-live-covid-vaccine-b1875209.html We do have to be prepared for the inevitability that viruses will continue to be a problem for us We’re going to have to really seriously contemplate continuing to practice some degree of physical distancing, some degree of mask wearing, some degree of hygiene, some degree of protecting those who are most at risk, as long as there are these nasty viruses around, whether or not we’re vaccinated It makes people very angry because they want to be able to stop being careful but it’s my advice, and it’s just based on studying these things over the years, is that it is not a cool thing just to ditch our preventative measures on a particular date because we hope that’s going to be associated with less risk - the risks are going to stay UK Vaccine boosters in Autumn All adults aged 50 and over NHS and care staff Anyone who qualifies for a flu jab Prof Anthony Harnden, Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation we are worried about people who have had their vaccinations earlier on We want to make sure they have a booster in time for the winter We do know from other vaccines that immunity wanes quicker in older people than younger people (Russia seems to be going for annual boosters) Uganda Population, 45 million https://www.dw.com/en/uganda-president-museveni-tightens-covid-lockdown-as-cases-soar/a-58037127 President Yoweri Museveni, Friday public holiday for the nation to pray Cases, + 20,000 Two million infections, increased holiday travel and Delta Deaths, + 126 (most not recorded, highest so far) 42-day lockdown Restrictions on movement Roadblocks at district borders COVID relief funds, mismanaged last year Kampala Lack of beds, oxygen, oxygen equipment, PPE, gloves, ambulances Medical fees Uganda's private hospitals, cash down payments of $3,000 AstraZeneca, 834,721 doses since March Africa, 1.3 billion people, 18% of the world's population, 2% of vaccine doses Indonesia Population, 270 milliion Java and Bali, 2 weeks Limited testing outside Jakarta

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