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Global World Health Organization, Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus Critical juncture, tough times ahead for the countries in the Northern Hemisphere The next few months are going to be very tough and some countries are on a dangerous track an exponential increase in cases in many nations Leading to hospital increases Governments need to act x 5 1. Assess current situation in your country, identify cases and clusters, conduct honest analysis 2. Make necessary adjustments to health facilities 3. Be clear and honest with people 4. Put systems in place to make it easier to comply, assist individuals and groups 5. Share good practice, speak to people with specific instructions, isolate all cases and quarantine contacts, its never too late to act Oxygen issues / project South Sudan, Somalia, Chad Solar power to run oxygen concentrators Maria Van Kerkhove European cities, the capacity for ICU is going to be reached in the coming weeks United States dark winter (Mr. Biden)" due to the second wave https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-digest-trump-votes-as-us-cases-surge-to-record/a-55381458 39 states increased cases over past 2 weeks https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases_deathsinlast7days Hospitalizations https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/COVIDNet/COVID19_3.html AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/astrazeneca-johnson-johnson-resume-late-stage-covid-19-vaccine-trials-n1244579 AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson, resume phase 3 clinical trials Two men, both have pledged free vaccination for all Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) University of Washington (22nd October) http://www.healthdata.org/sites/default/files/files/Projects/COVID/briefing_US_20201022.pdf Fall/winter surge has begun, cases and deaths Several weeks behind the massive surge in Europe Surge will intensify in November and December, reaching a peak in January Many states, enormous pressure on hospital capacity Re-impose some social distancing mandates Expand mask use Current situation Cases and deaths up Deaths, 680 per day last week, now 710 Effective R, over 1 in many Northern states Also in Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Kansas, Oklahoma, Mississippi and Alabama Trends in key drivers of transmission (mobility, mask use, testing, and seasonality) Largely unchanged over the last week Mobility remains constant at the national level Only California and Hawaii have levels that are less than 35% of the pre-COVID-19 baseline Approximately two-thirds, wearing a mask outside the home Lowest mask use rates are in Wyoming, North Dakota, and South Dakota Projections Daily deaths to reach nearly 2,200 a day in mid-January Cumulative deaths by February 1, 386,000 Assumes re-imposition of social distancing mandates when the daily death rate reaches 8 per million Expanding mask use to 95% .... the level seen in Singapore can greatly delay the imposition of mandates and save 63,000 lives UK https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases ONS https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26 Deaths, England and Wales, week ending 9 October 2020 (Week 41) Deaths registered was 1.5% (143 deaths) above the five-year average The number would have to get to 1,200 deaths above the norm to be classified as "excess" above random expected variations Deaths from coronavirus, flu and pneumonia are currently running at 1,621 There would usually be around 1,600 weekly deaths from flu and pneumonia Therefore, respiratory deaths at a normal level Essentially no community flu just now Death certificates, 438 (4.4%) mentioned novel coronavirus (COVID-19) COVID deaths up by 117 since last week when it was 3.2% of all deaths UK as a whole, deaths Total deaths = 11,359, which was 197 deaths higher than the five-year average but 85 fewer than Week 40 Cases, 10th to 16th October 2020 Infections continue to increase, England and Wales https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/latest Community infections (England), 433,300 One in 130 people Increased infection rates in all age groups Highest in older teenagers and young adults. North West, Yorkshire and The Humber, North East Wales Community infections, 16,700 One in 180 Northern Ireland One in 100 people Scotland (ONS, 3 to 16 October 2020) One in 180 people Cases now UK hospitalisations https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/healthcare Wales Gloucestershire police patrols Greece Athens, it is now mandatory for people to wear masks outdoors Curfew has been placed from 12.30 am - 5 am Kozani and Kastoria, under lockdown If you would like to donate to John's educational projects, please use the following link, thank you, https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_s-xclick&hosted_button_id=78GGHGLK5ZXAE

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