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Explore The Manhattan Breakout Just Kept Going. Here's Round Two | Macro Monday! August 10, 2026 with 789 views, 6 likes, and 1 comments. Experience the impact of this video content that has captured audience attention.

The Manhattan Breakout Just Kept Going. Here's Round Two | Macro Monday The preliminary July closed-sales print just came in at record levels. That data reflects March, April, and early-May contracts, which means the May, June, and July signings are still coming through the pipeline. The 11-year Manhattan price channel that broke last week isn't going back. It's still breaking. And the weak jobs report Friday just took the wind out of the September rate hike, which means mortgage-rate relief may come sooner than anyone thought. We're in the process of breaking the 10-year channel. We're probably even a little higher right now. We just have to wait for that pipeline to come in. Noah Rosenblatt and John Walkup close out the first full week after the breakout episode with the read: what the July print actually shows, what the jobs report means for the Fed, why credit spreads and the VIX both signal "priced for perfection" risk-on, and why the under-$1M market is "dead weight" while $4M+ luxury just keeps powering the whole story. Five Takeaways 🚀 The breakout is compounding, not fading: Preliminary July sales print at RECORD levels. Data reflects March-early May contracts. The strong May-June-July signings are still working through the pipeline. Follow-through confirmed. 📉 Manhattan supply just cratered further: 737 new listings in 30 days vs. a 907 August norm. Contracts are falling off a cliff (not sliding) at 766, headed to a ~650 September bottom. Plus a growing "participant-only" shadow supply reducing what the public even sees. 🏦 Friday's jobs report flipped the Fed narrative: US economy LOST 23K jobs in July vs. an expected +83K gain. Prior months revised down. September hike odds dropped to 46% (still a coin flip with October). Bad news is good news for buyers watching rates. 📊 Credit spreads down, VIX low, S&P's best week since April: The risk-on trade is fully back. John's read: "priced for absolute perfection." Whether the market can deliver is a separate question. 🏙️ The bifurcation is stark: $4M+ powers, sub-$1M drags: Luxury has been the bellwether through every season since the pandemic. The sub-$1M tier never even cleared the neutral zone this cycle. It's "dead weight" (Noah's word) while the luxury print drives the whole market average. Bonus: The Chart Lesson Also in this episode, a short clinic on why resale condo price per square foot is the right measure for reading NYC price action (bigger sample size, more reliable square footage data than co-ops, cross-neighborhood standardizer). If you're an agent still pulling median sales price for a small co-op set, this section is for you. Why This Episode Matters If you own, buy, sell, or operate in NYC real estate, this is the week the breakout became a trend, not a headline. Get the same Manhattan and Brooklyn dashboards Noah and John pull up every Monday at urbandigs.com. For independent pricing intelligence on a specific NYC deal, especially if you're prepping a fall listing in a tricky season, UrbanDigs Advisor gives you the read with no broker incentives. Visit urbandigs.co. Subscribe and hit the 🔔 so you never miss a Macro Monday. Programming note: We're on Macro Mondays only through Labor Day. Friday sessions resume in September. Timestamps 00:00 – Macro Monday 01:25 – Manhattan Real Estate 03:05 – August Inventory Is Running Low 04:45 – Participant-Only Listings & Shadow Inventory 06:25 – Contract Signed Demand Is Declining 08:00 – What July Sales Data Is Really Telling Us 09:40 – Price Action, Rents & the Market Pipeline 11:15 – Credit Spreads: Is Risk Back On? 12:55 – VIX & Market Volatility Explained 14:20 – Fed Funds Futures & September Rate Hike Odds 16:10 – September vs. October: When Will the Fed Hike? 17:50 – Mortgage Rates Reach Yearly Highs 19:15 – Is the U.S. Economy Heading Into a Recession? 20:45 – Weak Jobs Data & What It Means for Rates 22:15 – Gold, Inflation & Macro Uncertainty 23:40 – Manhattan Market Under $1 Million 25:05 – Luxury Market vs. Under-$1M Market 26:30 – West Village One-Bedroom Co-Op Price Action 28:05 – Why Resale Condo Price Per Square Foot Matters 29:15 – Using Larger Neighborhood Samples for Better Data 30:00 – Final Market Takeaways & Closing ==================================== 👉 Manhattan Just Broke Its 11-Year Price Channel https://www.youtube.com/live/BGQrUaiZcnA 👉 NYC Supply Is Disappearing 2-to-1 Here's What That Means https://www.youtube.com/live/OSCBJJh-b3k 👉 Don't Cut Your Price in August. Here's Why https://www.youtube.com/live/vmkvGm4WInc ==================================== #nycrealestate #manhattanrealestate #nycrealestate2026 #manhattanrealestate2026 #nychousingmarket #manhattanhousingmarket #realestateinvesting #realestatemarket #realestatemarketupdate #nycpropertymarket #manhattanproperty #nycrealestateinvestor #mortgagerates #interestrates #federalreserve #housingmarket #realestateanalysis #nycmarketupdate #macroMonday

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