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Four Rate Hikes Now Priced In. September at 90%. NYC Update. | Macro Monday! September 14, 2026 Two weeks ago the September Fed hike was 66%. This morning it's 90%. The market is now pricing FOUR hikes through June 2027. The 10-year Treasury yield just crossed 5%. Oil is on its second wave. Diesel is going exponential. Residential heating oil is at $5.50 a gallon (tank fills are doubling). And the Fed is stuck: rising supply-side inflation on one side, softening wages on the other, and no clean move that helps both. Got clowns to the left of me, jokers to the right, and the Fed stuck in the middle with you. Noah Rosenblatt and John Walkup open the fall season with the pre-percolation period read: Manhattan's fall listing wave just started (sharpest V-shape in years), contracts still bottoming through end of September, credit spreads at 6-month highs, and the four-hike Fed picture that just re-priced the entire rate environment. Five Takeaways 🏦 Four rate hikes now priced in: September 16 at 90%. December at 48%. March 2027 at 37%. June 2027 at 31%. Two weeks ago the market was arguing about ONE hike. Today it's stacking four. This is a re-pricing, not a tweak. 📈 The 10-year yield just crossed 5%: First time in a while. Mortgage rates are based off the 10-year. This is what "higher for longer" actually looks like in the data. ⛽ Diesel and oil are on the second wave: Residential heating oil at $5.50/gallon. Typical tank fills are doubling. Supply-side inflation the Fed can't hike its way out of. 🎯 The Fed is stuck: Runaway wage inflation is what the Fed is designed to fight. That's not happening. What IS happening is supply-side inflation (oil, food, energy) plus a softening jobs market. Cutting would fuel inflation. Hiking would break jobs. This is the actual dilemma. 🌊 Manhattan fall wave just started with the sharpest V in years: Supply at 1,026 vs. 2,100 September norm and climbing fast. Contracts at 587 vs. 687 norm, bottoming end of September. Active supply at 5,060 (down 19% YoY). Fall is compressed this year with a late Labor Day. The Fall Seller Playbook Also in this episode: the 3-week rule for fall listings (if you don't have engagement by mid-October, cut the price immediately). Better to wait for spring than list into November. The listing climate is CHALLENGING right now, so aspirational pricing gets penalized fast. And the market-pulse tick up is SUPPLY-driven, not demand-driven, which means you cannot price it like a seller's market even though the pulse says you could. Why This Episode Matters If you own, buy, sell, or advise in NYC real estate right now, this is the fall kickoff: rates re-pricing, oil accelerating, fall wave starting sharp, and the seller playbook that will make or break Q4. Get the same Manhattan and Brooklyn dashboards Noah and John pull up every Monday at urbandigs.com. For independent pricing intelligence on any specific NYC deal — especially a fall listing you're preparing to launch — UrbanDigs Advisor gives you the read with no broker incentives. Visit urbandigs.co. Subscribe and hit the 🔔 so you never miss a Macro Monday. Timestamps 00:00 Macro Monday: Manhattan Real Estate & Global Economy 02:20 September Listing Supply & New Inventory 04:35 Contract Sign Activity & Fall Market Outlook 07:15 Manhattan Real Estate Demand Has Slowed 09:20 Manhattan Inventory Trends & Seasonal Patterns 12:05 Supply-Driven Market & Pricing Strategy 14:45 Credit Spreads & Rising Market Risk 17:30 Fed Funds Futures & Interest Rate Expectations 20:35 Potential Fed Rate Hikes & Mortgage Rates 23:15 Inflation, Oil Prices & Wage Growth 26:10 Why the Fed Is Stuck 28:40 U.S. Housing Supply & Months of Inventory 31:00 The Best Time to List a Manhattan Property 34:05 Listing Prices, Market Conditions & Price Cuts 36:15 Investors & Developers Returning to Manhattan 38:20 Manhattan Inventory & Contract Activity Recap 40:05 Private Listings, Spring Market & Final Thoughts ================================================ #manhattanrealestate #nycrealestate #nycrealestateupdate #manhattanrealestateupdate #nychousingmarket #manhattanhousingmarket #newyorkrealestate #nycpropertymarket #manhattanpropertymarket #realestatemarketupdate #realestatetrends #nycrealestatetrends #realestateinvesting #manhattaninvesting #mortgagerates #interestrates #inflation #housingmarket #realestatemarket #urbanrealestate

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