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Kaggle Conversations with Sara Hooker: What Comes After AI Scaling | Kaggle Analytics Table

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In 2020, Sara Hooker published "The Hardware Lottery", introducing an idea that has won high relevance today with AI evaluation: the best research is often what runs the fastest on currently available hardware. Her thesis is highly relevant as scaling returns slow down, and potential manipulation in benchmarks arises. In this episode of Kaggle Conversations, Meg Risdal sits down with Sara Hooker, CEO and co-founder of Adaption Labs, former VP of Research at Cohere, and member of Kaggle's Research Advisory Board. In this conversation, they cover: • Why the hardware lottery has intensified since 2020 • What the "leaderboard illusion" reveals about manipulation in AI evals • Why scaling is hitting diminishing returns and the paradigms that replace it • How an efficient stack could put research back outside frontier labs • What Adaption Labs’ Uncharted Data Challenge on Kaggle surfaced, including a submission of 129 datasets • The one idea Sara calls the most underrated in AI right now Read the ā€œHardware Lotteryā€ paper: https://arxiv.org/abs/2009.06489v2 Subscribe for more Kaggle Conversations: https://www.youtube.com/c/kaggle Chapters 0:00 Why community drives frontier progress 0:24 Meg and Sara’s meeting in 2017 and the early DeepMind era 2:47 The through line: problem-driven research 5:28 The Aya project and building an ecosystem 8:44 The hardware lottery, explained 11:26 Why the hardware lottery has intensified since 2020 12:51 Deconstructing the ā€œleaderboard illusionā€ 14:47 Shifting incentives in the AI research community 15:41 Structuring a fair leaderboard 17:01 The power of crowdsourced verification in Kaggle competitions 18:24 The diminishing returns of the scaling era 21:15 Investing in efficiency beyond scale 23:33 Adaption Labs and continuous learning 26:16 The potential obsolescence of prompt engineering 27:15 The Uncharted Data Challenge 30:21 How efficiency increases interest 31:14 Aligning your focus with functionality 33:04 Hiring globally and the talent thesis 34:46 The most underrated idea in AI right now About Kaggle: Kaggle’s global community of practitioners, researchers, and enthusiasts collaborate to shape the frontier of AI. Through AI competitions, benchmarks, agentic evaluation, Kaggle serves as both the engine and proving ground for community-led innovation. Follow Kaggle online 🌐 Visit the WEBSITE: https://www.kaggle.com āœļø Check out our BLOG: https://www.kaggle.com/blog 🐦 Follow Kaggle on X: https://x.com/kaggle šŸ”— Connect with us on LINKEDIN: https://www.linkedin.com/company/kaggle šŸŽ® Join us on the Kaggle Discord server: http://discord.gg/kaggle šŸŽ„ Subscribe to our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/@kaggle

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