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Explore Trump is tanking the GOP's midterm chances. Does he care? | The Debrief with Clayton Allen with 269,152 views, 2,532 likes, and 180 comments. Experience the impact of this video content that has captured audience attention.

An unpopular president would normally step back and let congressional candidates run their own races. Donald Trump can’t—or won’t. He keeps making himself the main character of the midterms, doubling down on unpopular issues and forcing Republicans to defend positions many voters have already rejected. So why is Trump making the GOP’s midterm problem worse? Subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔): http://www.youtube.com/@GZEROMedia Subscribe to Ian_Bremmer's YouTube channel https://www.youtube.com/@ianbremmer Sign up for GZERO's free newsletters on global politics: https://www.gzeromedia.com/subscribe Clayton Allen: The midterms were always going to be good for Democrats, but right now, what had been a blue tide is looking more like a blue wave. Yet President Trump continues to double down on unpopular policies and personal projects. Why is that? The data favors Democrats. They have about a nine-and-a-half-point generic ballot advantage, and Trump’s popularity continues to decline. His polling average is about 38%. Some individual polls have him as low as 32%. If all of this holds—if polling tells us exactly how voters are going to behave in November—that’s a Democratic majority in the House of about 237 or 238 seats, though that may be a bit optimistic. And in the Senate, it’s a majority in the low 50s. We actually think Democrats are now favored in the Senate. We give them a 55% chance of taking the majority, but we think that majority will be pretty narrow. All those polling shifts are coming because voters are simply fed up. Right now, consumer confidence is at its lowest level in 12 and a half years. Consumer sentiment has dropped 15% since January. President Trump’s approval rating on the cost of living is around 17%. Within the Republican Party, Trump’s approval rating on the economy has fallen from 80% in January to 56% today. On the cost of living, it has fallen from 70% to 44%. These are not numbers that support a strong argument for reelection or Republican success in the midterms. In response to negative polling, most presidents would be looking for what they could do differently. Trump, though, is doubling down on the big issues: the war in Iran, sanctions, tariffs on Canada and public fears about AI. On issues where most US voters—or at least the vast majority—agree, Trump is taking the other side. It’s the small stuff, too: building a triumphal arch near Arlington National Cemetery, putting his name on the Kennedy Center—or threatening to tear it down—and demolishing the East Wing to build a ballroom. These are also things that a majority of voters say they don’t really like. They don’t want to see the president focused on them, but they remain front and center for Trump. None of this means Trump can ignore the midterms, though. Even when he tries to step in, he is having the opposite effect. Ken Paxton, his ally in Texas, has said Trump’s interventions actually hurt his polling numbers. Trump’s consideration of a diesel-export ban to help agricultural states had the opposite effect as well. Voters chose Trump to fix the cost of living, affordability and inflation. They now think he is the root of many of those same problems. All of this is adding up to a pretty sobering 2026 for the GOP. Keep up with global news and why it matters. Follow GZERO! X: https://x.com/gzeromedia Instagram: https://instagram.com/gzeromedia PUPPET REGIME on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/realpuppetregime/ TikTok: https://tiktok.com/@gzeromedia LinkedIn: https://linkedin.com/in/gzeromedia Facebook: https://facebook.com/gzeromedia Threads: https://threads.net/@gzeromedia Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/gzeromedia.com GZERO World on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/gzero-world-with-ian-bremmer/id1294461271 GZERO World on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/13QW2sLPCjVbdDE6fmJCNf?si=9d00ce9ed2184c59 GZERO Media, a Eurasia Group company, is a multimedia publisher providing news, insights, and commentary on the events shaping our world. Our properties include GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, our weekly show on US public television; our newsletters GZERO Daily, GZERO AI, GZERO North, and GZERO Daily with Ian Bremmer; our parody series Puppet Regime; our digital video series including Ian Bremmer's Quick Take every week; and the GZERO World Podcast. Our content is free and available at https://www.gzeromedia.com/.

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