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Infection fatality rate of COVID-19 inferred from seroprevalence data (WHO / Stanford, 14th October) https://www.who.int/bulletin/online_first/BLT.20.265892.pdf Estimate the infection fatality rate From seroprevalence data 61 studies (74 estimates) Eight preliminary national estimates Seroprevalence estimates ranged from 0.02% to 53.40% Infection fatality rates ranged from 0.00% to 1.63% Overall IFR Across 51 locations Median COVID-19 infection fatality rate was 0.23% Most locations probably have an infection fatality rate less than 0.20% In people less than 70 years Infection fatality rates ranged from 0.00% to 0.31% Medians of 0.05%. Factors in areas with low IFR Younger population (excluding Japan) Previous immunity from other coronaviruses Genetic differences Hygiene etiquette Lower infectious load Other unknown factors Country IFR under 70 Argentina 0.13 0.09 Brazil 0.27 0.9 BC 0.59 0.08 Denmark 0.27 0.04 France 0.3 0.03 Italy 1.2 0.22 Netherlands 0.68 0.09 NY 0.65 0.25 S Florida 0.25 0.08 Louisiana 0.3 0.1 Bay 0.12 0.03 Georgia 0.44 0.15 Missouri 0.2 0.05 Assessing the Age Specificity of Infection Fatality Rates for COVID-19: Systematic Review, Meta-Analysis, and Public Policy Implications 6th October https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160895v6.full.pdf https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160895v6 0.4% at age 55 1.4% at age 65 4.6% at age 75 15% at age 85 Exponential relationship between age and IFR for COVID-19 Differences in the age structure of the population explain about 90% of the geographical variation in IFR Consequently, public health measures to mitigate infections in older adults could substantially decrease total deaths Humoral Immune Response to SARS-CoV-2 in Iceland https://www.nejm.org/doi/pdf/10.1056/NEJMoa2026116?articleTools=true Measured antibodies in 1,215 diagnosed with quantitative polymerase-chain-reaction (qPCR) assay Measured antibodies in 4222 quarantined persons who had been exposed to SARS-CoV-2 Measured antibodies in 23,452 persons not known to have been exposed In diagnoses people 1,107 of the 1,215 who were tested (91.1%) were seropositive Antibodies increased during 2 months after diagnosis Remained on a plateau for the remainder of the study In quarantined people 2.3% were seropositive In people not known to have been exposed 0.3% tested antibody positive Conclusions We estimate that 0.9% of Icelanders were infected with SARS-CoV-2 Infection was fatal in 0.3% overall New knowledge about the Iceland epidemic We also estimate that 56% of all infections in Iceland had been diagnosed with qPCR 14% of infections had occurred in quarantined persons who had not been tested with qPCR 30% of infections had occurred in persons not known to have been exposed Conclusions Antiviral antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 did not decline within 4 months after diagnosis Risk of death from infection was 0.3% 44% of persons infected with SARS-CoV-2 in Iceland were not diagnosed by qPCR.

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