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UK, the last lockdown https://www.rsm.ac.uk/resources/rsm-live/ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4W6-aq8KhNQ Unlikely to be needed again Britain learns to treat coronavirus like flu Prof Chris Whitty Up to 25,000 people die in a bad flu year without anyone noticing, 2017 -2018 Every year, somewhere between 7,000 and 9,000 citizens die of flu most of them very elderly Accepting some Covid deaths, the price of a whole life Royal School of Medicine webinar Government, pull the alarm cord because of dangerous now VOC Covid is not going to go away You've got to work out what's a rational policy to this and here I would differentiate quite a lot between a pandemic environment and what you get with seasonal flu So it is clear we are going to have to manage it, at some point, rather like we manage the flu. Here is a seasonal, very dangerous disease that kills thousands of people and society has chosen a particular way round it. Society would not tolerate lock down to prevent flu type numbers We want to get as close as we can [to zero] but the question is how do you balance that against other priorities? What are people prepared to put up with Flu appears to be optional We need to work out some balance which actually keeps it at a low level, minimises deaths as best we can, but in a way that the population tolerates, through medical countermeasures like vaccines and in due course drugs, which mean you can minimise mortality while not maximising the economic and social impacts on our fellow citizens Lockdowns would be reimposed if cases rose? No, I don't think so Impossible to prevent variants from coming into the UK We have to accept the idea that stopping variants coming to the UK is not a realistic starting point, but you can slow it down US Increase in cases https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases US vaccinations https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations First dose, 100 million (30%) Second dose, 56 million (16.9%) Janssen, 3.5 million US, Forecasting https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#forecasting_weeklydeaths US Cases Texas cases US Deaths, Iraq https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2021/4/2/iraq-battles-new-surge-in-coronavirus-cases Poor compliance Surge Over half UK variant Younger patients Vaccines in Iraq Early March, 50,000 from Sinopharm, 336,000 from Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine India https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/4/2/indias-daily-new-covid-infections-highest-in-six-months Cases, + 81,466 = 12.3 million Highest since October Deaths, 469 = 163,396 Vaccines in India 65 million so far Over 45 now allowed Turkey Population, 82million https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/4/2/turkey-daily-covid-19-cases-exceed-40000-highest-level-yet Cases, + 40,806 = 3.3 million Deaths, + 176 = 32,713 Highest figure of the pandemic Government eased restrictions early March Nationwide weekend lockdowns form April 13 Communal meals, Ramadan, prohibited for second year Curfew, 9pm to 5am 15 million doses, Sinovac since 15th Jan

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