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Friday 26th March UK Past 7 days https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk Cases, +38,424 (down 2%) Deaths, +520 (down 31.4%) Admissions, +2,918 (down 19.8%) In hospital = 5,544 (20th March) Bed occupancy down from 50% to under 5% First dose: 28,991,188 Second dose: 2,775,481 CoViD tracker app https://covid.joinzoe.com https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kkG7RrdnbdE Flattening of new cases, 10 days R = around 1 One in 920 people have symptoms Reasons for flattening False positive, 1,000 cases Under the age of 50 Under the age of 19 As predicted due to vaccinations Reinfections, 352 cases from the app However overall immunity working well Half population vaccinated, 2nd to Israel 74% protection after first 30 days Zero protection for 12 days Risk of new variants minor after vaccination What to do? Greater awareness of symptoms Testing everyone with symptoms Do a better job in isolating people Full vaccinations, getting back to normal Confident we will be through this soon Regional differences emerging Wales and Scotland higher (schools returned earlier) West Midlands turn upwards SE and London cases going down US 200 million in 100 days That’s by 30th April https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/03/25/joe-biden-live-updates/ Averaging 2.5 million doses a day over last week 1.9 million per day needed EU conference yesterday https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-56529868 No export ban Dr. Von der Leyen I think it is clear that first of all the company has to catch up has to honour the contract it has with European member states before it can engage again in exporting vaccines India Population 1,390,108,411 (UN, 2020) https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/india-population/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/03/25/india-coronavirus-cases-vaccine/ Cases, + 53,476 Highest figure since October Higher proportion of cases seem to be asymptomatic Deaths, + 250 Factors Changes in behaviour Waning immunity among those previously infected Mumbai, 90% of new cases not in the slums Massive internal movements and commuting New variants Elections and festivals soon, Kumbh Mela Vaccination Up to about 50 million All Indians 45 and older, eligible for vaccines starting April 1 Oxford AZ Bharat Biotech’s Covaxin https://www.bharatbiotech.com/covaxin.html Inactivated vaccines n = 25,800 81% interim efficacy Punjab February to early March, 80% of cases UK variant South Africa and Brazil present at lower levels India variant, mostly Maharashtra https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1707177 2 mutations that confer immune escape and increased infectivity E484Q and L452R mutations Found in about 15-20% of samples Do not match any previously catalogued VOCs Kerala, N440K, associated with immune escape

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