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Daniel Kokotajlo: "70% Chance We Go Extinct" | The Diary of a CEO Analytics Table

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About Daniel Kokotajlo: "70% Chance We Go Extinct" | The Diary of a CEO

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A former OpenAI researcher who forecasts the future of AI for a living says there's a 70% chance this ends in something like human extinction — and he's not the only one who believes it. Daniel Kokotajlo spent years inside OpenAI building the internal forecasts that became AI 2027, one of the most-read AI predictions of 2026. When the company asked him to sign an anti-disparagement clause on his way out, he refused — and walked away from $2 million, roughly 80% of his family's net worth, rather than agree to stay silent. In this clip, Kokotajlo lays out why he thinks the AI labs racing toward superintelligence privately believe there's a real chance it goes catastrophically wrong, why Anthropic's revenue exploding 60x in a single year puts it on track to be "the entire economy" by 2030, and why leaked emails from the Musk-OpenAI lawsuit reveal the company's founders were terrified of a rival becoming a literal dictator with AGI. He also opens up about the personal toll: telling his wife he didn't want more children because he isn't sure they'll ever get the chance to join the workforce. No narration, no filler — just the moments that matter, cut down to the signal. Chapters: 0:00 Cold open: "70% chance this goes horribly wrong" 1:35 Anthropic's 60x growth and "the entire economy by 2030" 2:56 The Musk-OpenAI emails: fearing a rival dictator 3:58 Would he press the button to shut it all down? 6:06 The $2 million he walked away from 8:22 "I told my wife: let's not have more kids" 9:57 His closing answer Daniel Kokotajlo is a former OpenAI researcher and executive director of the AI Futures Project, a nonprofit focused on forecasting the future of AI. He is the co-author of AI 2027 and AI 2040: Plan A. 🎙️ Full episode (The Diary of a CEO): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_g4l7YkDQwA 📺 Frontier Cut curates the sharpest clips from the world's top AI and business podcasts. New episodes weekly. 🔔 Subscribe: @frontiercut This is a transformative commentary clip curated for discussion and education. All rights to the original footage belong to their respective owners. #DanielKokotajlo #AI2027 #Anthropic #AISafety #Superintelligence #AGI #AIrisk #TheDiaryOfACEO

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