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Explore Nate Silver On What the Polls Say — And What His Gut’s Telling Him | The Ezra Klein Show with 1,816,828 views, 12,382 likes, and 2,166 comments. Experience the impact of this video content that has captured audience attention.

“If the election goes roughly as the polls say it will go, then in some ways it would mark the end of the Trump era,” Nate Silver told me. The midterms are a week away, and it looks entirely possible that Democrats will win not just the House, but also the Senate. Democrats are polling competitively deep into red territory – Texas, Ohio, Alaska, Iowa, Kansas – states that Trump won in 2024 by double digits. But Democrats have been burned by big polling misses before. So can we really trust what the polls are telling us? And what stories have emerged in the data that we might see play out on election night? Silver is an internationally famous elections nerd, one of the people who made election forecasting a core part of American political discourse. He edits The Silver Bulletin on Substack, co-hosts the podcast “Still Counting” and is the author, most recently, of “On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything.” [00:00:00] Intro [00:09:40] Are Democrats overperforming in red states? [00:13:07] Does moderation win elections? [00:26:32] What if Republicans have a better night? [00:30:05] The Democratic Party's new talent [00:42:26] Trump's declining approval rating [00:48:48] Risks in Trump's lame duck term [00:51:48] Money's impact & election predictions [00:54:50] Book recommendations Read the full transcript here: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/10/27/opinion/ezra-klein-podcast-nate-silver.html Watch more on @EzraKleinShow Thoughts? Guest suggestions? Email us at [email protected]. You can find transcripts (posted midday) and more episodes of “The Ezra Klein Show” at nytimes.com/ezra-klein-podcast. Book recommendations from all our guests are listed at https://www.nytimes.com/article/ezra-klein-show-book-recs.html

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