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U.S. household net wealth increased by roughly $13 trillion in a single quarter. What should economists make of a number that large? In this conversation, Salome, a Level 1 student at the Global Forecasting School, sits down with economist Douglas Laxton to explore what the latest Federal Reserve household balance sheet data can teach us about financial risk. The discussion starts with a simple idea from Bob Ford, Senior Adviser at The Better Policy Project: a really good economist should be able to “dive deeply into an issue without getting lost.” Using the extraordinary increase in U.S. household wealth as a starting point, Salome and Doug discuss equity valuations, expectations surrounding AI and productivity, the possibility of a major market correction, and why economists should analyze difficult scenarios before they happen. This is not a prediction of another Global Financial Crisis. It is an exercise in prudent risk management: What if markets are too optimistic? And if a major financial shock did occur, how would it move through the economy? The conversation also explores how economic models and AI can help economists move beyond simply forecasting the baseline and instead understand the risks around it. AI Powered Learning dot org launches October 1, 2026. The Global Forecasting School will also hold an intensive workshop in Prague from December 7 to December 11, 2026, with programs for policymakers and financial institutions. Learn more: The Better Policy Project: thebetterpolicyproject.org AI Powered Learning: AI-Powered-Learning.org For information about the Global Forecasting School or the Prague workshop, contact Asya Kostanyan at The Better Policy Project at: [email protected] #GlobalFinancialCrisis #Economics #FinancialMarkets #FederalReserve #ArtificialIntelligence #AI #EconomicModels #Macroeconomics #GlobalForecastingSchool #BetterPolicyProject

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