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Don't Cut Your Price in August. Here's Why. | Macro Monday! July 20, 2026 Manhattan supply just came in at 872 vs. a July norm of 1,164. Contracts held at 888 vs. a 913 norm. The seasonal fade is on. The Fed just watched CPI come in cool, and the rate picture already shifted from two hikes down to one. And in maybe the most important signal of the week: renters started calling agents to ask about the sales market. Summer is a time of patience. Do not cut your price in August. You will be cutting into a decline that no buyer is watching. Noah Rosenblatt and John Walkup break down the mid-July setup: the seasonal gravity kicking in, the polar shift from "lots of interest" in late June to "almost nothing" in early July, and the two moves every seller needs to be thinking about right now. Plus the CPI print that killed the July hike narrative, the pied-à-terre tax story of a British cash buyer walking away from a $2M deal because the annual tax made renting cheaper, and John's read on why this may be the most hated stock market rally in years (and what that means for anyone holding NYC real estate). Five Takeaways 📅 Don't cut your price in August: The seasonal fade runs until mid-to-late September. Cutting into a declining audience is the tree falling in the empty forest. Better play: relist at the right price the second or third week of September, hold showings in early October, sign in late October. 🏙️ Manhattan supply is running deep below seasonal: 872 in the last 30 days vs. a 1,164 July norm. Contracts at 888 vs. 913. The spring streak above 1,000 is officially rolled over. This is normal. Plan around it. 🏦 CPI came in cool. Two hikes just became one: September hike now at 55% (still a coin flip). Second hike pushed out to March 2027 at 34% odds, then a cut priced back in for September 2027. Mortgage rates flatlining in a 6.3% to 6.75% channel. 📞 The NYC investment thesis is confirming in real time: Renters are calling agents to ask about sales listings. That's rental exhaustion arriving earlier than expected. Meanwhile, a British cash buyer just walked away from a $2M unit because the pied-à-terre tax made renting cheaper. Both dynamics point in the same direction. 📊 The tier-by-tier scorecard: In Manhattan, $2-4M leads year-over-year, then $1-2M, then $4M+. In Brooklyn, sub-$1M just turned negative (that's your rate-sensitive tier). The gap between renovated + priced right and everything else keeps widening. Why This Episode Matters If you're a buyer, seller, or agent in NYC right now, this is the summer playbook: the seasonal timing, the Fed-and-rates read, and the tier-by-tier story. Get the same Manhattan and Brooklyn dashboards Noah and John use live every Monday at urbandigs.com. For independent pricing intelligence on a specific NYC deal, UrbanDigs Advisor gives you the read with no broker incentives and no agenda, just senior NYC market expertise applied to the property in front of you. Visit urbandigs.co. Subscribe and hit the 🔔 so you never miss a Macro Monday. Tomorrow at 11am: Negotiating tactics for buyers. Timely. Timestamps 00:00 – Macro Monday 01:15 – Manhattan Real Estate Market Snapshot: Summer Slowdown 03:30 – Manhattan Supply Falls Below Seasonal Norms 05:05 – Contract Activity Rolls Over as Summer Arrives 06:45 – Seasonal Slowdown: What NYC Buyers and Sellers Should Expect 08:30 – Best Time to List a Manhattan Property in Fall 2026 10:15 – Pricing Strategy: When to Cut Your Listing Price 12:00 – Should Sellers Relist or Cut Prices During Summer? 14:00 – NYC Rental Market vs. Selling: The Impact of Mansion Tax 15:45 – Credit Spreads: Is the Market Becoming Too Complacent? 17:30 – Fed Rate Outlook: September Hike Probability and 2026 Forecast 19:30 – Fed Funds Futures Explained 21:15 – Mortgage Rates Outlook 23:00 – Jumbo Mortgage Rates Approach Yearly Highs 24:45 – Inflation, Interest Rates, and the Fed's Next Move 26:30 – The Mortgage Rate Lock-In Effect and Housing Supply 28:00 – National Housing Inventory Crunch and Homebuilder Trends 29:30 – Manhattan vs. Brooklyn 31:00 – Brooklyn Real Estate Struggles in the Lower Price Range 32:15 – NYC Real Estate Strategy 33:30 – Macro Monday Wrap-Up ==================================== 👉 No Investors Are Here. That's the NYC Contrarian Signal https://www.youtube.com/live/ogtME4wJXQs 👉 Q2 Is In: NYC Prices Up, But Are Sellers Misreading the Market? https://www.youtube.com/live/PjHZUQu2KIo 👉 How to Turn NYC Housing Data Into Social Media Gold with Aziz Sunderji https://www.youtube.com/live/-GglhuhPW44 ==================================== #NYCRealEstate #ManhattanRealEstate #BrooklynRealEstate #NYCHousingMarket #RealEstateMarket #NYCRealEstateMarket #ManhattanMarket #BrooklynMarket #MortgageRates #FedRates #InterestRates #Inflation #FedFunds #CreditSpreads #HousingMarket #RealEstate2026 #NYCProperty #RealEstateNews #MacroMonday #UrbanDigs

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