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One Fed Hike in September: Why It Might Actually LOWER Mortgage Rates | Macro Monday June 29, 2026 Analytics Table
Income Estimates for One Fed Hike in September: Why It Might Actually LOWER Mortgage Rates | Macro Monday June 29, 2026
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About One Fed Hike in September: Why It Might Actually LOWER Mortgage Rates | Macro Monday June 29, 2026
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One Fed Hike in September Why It Might Actually LOWER Mortgage Rates Q2 just closed. Manhattan delivered the best spring in three years (longest run above 1,000 contracts in three full years), supply ran 10% tighter than normal, and the Fed's rate-hike picture finally settled on one move in September. Counter-intuitively, that hike could push mortgage rates DOWN, not up. And Brooklyn just posted a 9% year-over-year jump in median resale condo price per square foot. Manhattan goes into slowdowns last and comes out first. We're about to break the channel. Noah Rosenblatt and John Walkup close the books on Q2 2026 with the numbers, the Fed read, and the macro setup heading into a hot July. Plus Noah's contrarian "Mini-Volker it" call for the new Fed Chair, John's flag on hidden credit risk that nobody's watching, and a Brooklyn quarterly print that confirms two very different markets are running side by side. Five Takeaways: 📈 The best spring in 3 years just closed: Manhattan held above 1,000 contracts for the longest stretch since 2022 with 10% less supply than a typical year. June supply at 1,206 vs. a 1,379 norm. Contracts at 1,029. Q2 median sales up 4% YoY. 🏦 Fed settled on one hike in September: The pendulum swing from cuts to hikes appears done. One move at 48% odds, then a hold. Noah's call: skip the incrementalism and "Mini-Volker it" with a single 50bp shock to reset inflation expectations. 📉 The counter-intuitive read on mortgage rates: A Fed hike that's read as inflation-fighting can actually pull the 10-year DOWN. If that holds, mortgage rates ease back even as the Fed tightens. Already starting to play out. 🏙️ Brooklyn PPSF up 9% YoY: Median sales up 5% YoY. Average sales down. That spread tells you the action is concentrated in the middle of the market, not the top or the bottom. Tale of two Brooklyns continues. ⚠️ The credit risk nobody's watching: Public credit spreads look fine. But a huge chunk of post-GFC lending moved into private credit (Bitcoin proxies, MicroStrategy, leverage you can't see in the public data). John's worth a listen here. Bonus: The Friday days-on-market chart visualized in clean terms. Price right and sign in 30 days at 100% of ask. Sit past 180 days and the median discount runs 8%, with half the market below that. The penalty for aspirational pricing is real and getting steeper. Why This Episode Matters If you own, buy, sell, or operate in NYC real estate, this is the quarterly close-out and the macro setup for the back half of 2026 in one place. Real-time Manhattan and Brooklyn dashboards every Monday at urbandigs.com For independent pricing intelligence on a specific NYC deal, UrbanDigs Advisor gives you the read with no broker incentives and no agenda, just senior NYC market expertise applied to the property in front of you. Visit urbandigs.co today! Subscribe and hit the 🔔 so you never miss a Macro Monday. Don't miss Tuesday: Aziz Sundarji of Home Economics returns at 11am to teach the visualization skills every real estate professional should be using to read NYC data. He makes the best charts in the business. Timestamps: 00:00 Intro – Macro Monday Begins 00:45 Summer Heat & NYC Market Overview 02:25 June Real Estate Market Recap 04:15 Manhattan Inventory & New Listings Update 06:30 Contract Activity and June Performance 09:15 Best Spring Market in Three Years 12:00 Why Tight Inventory Matters 13:45 Transition to Macro Economy 14:10 Credit Spreads Explained 18:30 Stock Market vs Credit Spreads 21:00 Private Credit & Financial Risks 24:20 Fed Rate Expectations & September Outlook 28:00 Mortgage Rates and Housing Market Impact 31:10 AI Boom vs Dot-Com Bubble 33:45 National Housing Market Trends 35:10 Manhattan & Brooklyn Quarterly Market Report 36:20 Pricing Strategy, Q&A & Final Takeaways ==================================== 👉 Oil Fell, Inflation Dropped, the Fed Got Hawkish: Make It Make Sense https://www.youtube.com/live/RrdK2ceETzk 👉 NYC Real Estate Investment Thesis Part 2 with special guest Noam Newman https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n9BExXdqhC4&t=40s 👉 Manhattan vs America: The Off-Market Chart That Tells the Real Story https://www.youtube.com/live/tEEo5h5z21Q ==================================== #MacroMonday #NYCRealEstate #ManhattanRealEstate #BrooklynRealEstate #HousingMarket #RealEstateNews #MortgageRates #FedWatch #InterestRates #MarketUpdate #PropertyInvestment #HomeBuying #HousingTrends #EconomicOutlook #WallStreet #CreditSpreads #AIBoom #RealEstateInvesting #UrbanDigs #MarketAnalysis
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