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What is the fiscal multiplier? The answer is more complicated than a single number. In this video, Salome from the Global Forecasting School explores why the economic effects of fiscal policy depend fundamentally on what the government actually does. Using a fiscal experiment from Jordan’s JAM2.0 Quarterly Projection Model, we examine how economists should interpret model results—and why a plausible impulse response is only the beginning of the analysis. We then compare different fiscal instruments using illustrative reconstructed simulations from GIMF (Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model). Government consumption, public investment, general transfers, and targeted transfers can produce very different economic effects—even when the initial fiscal shock is the same size. The broader lesson is simple: Better Models + Better Evidence + Better Judgment A model should help economists think. It should not prevent economists from thinking. We also introduce work underway at The Better Policy Project, including GPT applications that will allow economists and students to conduct fiscal experiments using GIMF, as well as AIPoweredLearning.org, our upcoming platform for AI-powered macroeconomic learning, modeling tools, and global forecasting courses. For more details, questions about the Prague workshop, or partnership inquiries: 🌐 thebetterpolicyproject.org 📧 [email protected] If you find this useful, like the video, subscribe to the channel, and follow The Better Policy Project on LinkedIn for upcoming modeling experiments, courses, workshops, and educational content. #FiscalPolicy #FiscalMultiplier #Macroeconomics #EconomicModels #GIMF #JAM2 #Economics #EconomicPolicy #CentralBanking #IMF #GlobalForecastingSchool #BetterPolicyProject #AIPoweredLearning #PolicyAnalysis #EconomicEducation

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