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What’s Really Driving Inflation? A Better Way to Measure Price Stability Analytics Table
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About What’s Really Driving Inflation? A Better Way to Measure Price Stability
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When inflation rises—or falls—the headline number doesn’t tell the whole story. In this video, we introduce a new framework for understanding inflation by asking a more useful question: Which prices are actually moving? Drawing on our new research, Measuring Price Stability Better: Decomposing the U.S. CPI Basket for a Modern Inflation Framework, we divide core consumer prices along two dimensions: sticky vs. flexible and traded vs. non-traded. This creates four distinct components that can help identify where inflation begins, how shocks move through the economy, and whether inflationary pressure is becoming persistent. We explore the U.S. post-pandemic inflation episode, where flexible inflation peaked well before sticky non-traded inflation, and explain why that sequencing may provide useful information about the propagation of inflationary shocks. The strongest lead-lag relationship in the analysis appears at around 12 months, although this relationship is descriptive rather than causal. We also explain one of the most important distinctions in inflation analysis: Inflation is speed. The price level is distance. Falling inflation does not necessarily mean falling prices—it means prices are increasing more slowly. The broader message is simple: the same inflation rate does not necessarily imply the same economic problem—or the same policy response. Learn more and follow our research: https://www.thebetterpolicyproject.org/ AI Powered Learning — Launching October 1 https://ai-powered-learning.org/ #Inflation #Economics #MonetaryPolicy #PriceStability #CPI #CoreInflation #Macroeconomics #CentralBanking #EconomicPolicy #FederalReserve #PhillipsCurve #EconomicResearch #TheBetterPolicyProject #AIPoweredLearning
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