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What happens when the assumptions behind the baseline are wrong? In this conversation, Salome sits down with economist Doug Laxton to explore a different way of thinking about economic and financial risk—one built around scenarios, balance sheets, credit creation, expectations, and the feedback loops between the financial system and the wider economy. Drawing on Doug’s experience with global modeling and risk assessment, the discussion examines why a baseline forecast is only the beginning of serious risk management. The goal of modeling is not to predict the future with false precision, but to understand what could go wrong, how shocks could propagate, and how institutions could respond. The conversation covers endogenous money creation, how bank lending creates deposits, lessons from the Global Financial Crisis, household balance sheets after COVID, and why today’s optimism around AI creates an important new set of scenarios for economists and financial institutions to examine. For chief economists, risk teams, researchers, policymakers, and anyone interested in macro-financial modeling, the central question is simple: What are we missing—and what happens if we are wrong? Topics discussed: Risk assessment • Scenario analysis • Endogenous money • Banking and credit creation • Financial crises • AI and productivity • Asset prices • Balance sheets • Macroeconomic modeling • Prudent risk management #RiskManagement #Economics #Banking #FinancialRisk #Macroeconomics #EconomicModeling #AI #FinancialCrisis #ScenarioAnalysis #EndogenousMoney #DougLaxton #BetterPolicyProject

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