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Will AI cause mass unemployment? Maybe not. Analytics Table
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Over half of people are worried they'll lose their job to AI, and they're right to be concerned. AI can already generate photorealistic videos, drive a taxi more safely than humans, and perform accurate medical diagnoses — and it's improving rapidly. Most assume this will drive wages down. But the history of automation suggests that's only true once automation is nearly complete. Until then, automation drives down the value of some skills and drives up the value of others. In this video, 80,000 Hours founder Benjamin Todd takes you through Chapter 8 of his new book — distilling what economics, history, and recent data on AI tell us about which skills are likely to increase in value over the coming decade, and which careers you should think twice about before training for. --- _Ben’s new book is "a ridiculously in-depth guide to finding a fulfilling career that does good" — out on May 26! Order now to help us get more people into impactful careers (& access a private career Q&A marathon with the author). Get it from your local bookstore, or online at https://80k.info/career-guide_ — The video covers: • Why the ATM didn't kill the bank teller (and what that tells us about AI) • Why radiologists, software engineers, and taxi drivers haven't been replaced yet • What economic models predict about wages between now and full automation — including one scenario in which wages rise 10x before crashing, and another in which they rise indefinitely • The four categories of skills most likely to increase in value as AI improves • Why "just become a plumber" is the wrong answer • Why you probably shouldn't be training as a lawyer, accountant, financial analyst, actuary, writer, translator, or graphic designer right now without seriously thinking about AI • The specific skills we think could be most valuable over the next 10 years *Get your copy of the career guide:* https://80k.info/career-guide Key references mentioned in the video: • Epoch AI's GATE model of full automation scenarios: https://epoch.ai/GATE • "The most important graph in AI right now" (Benjamin Todd): https://benjamintodd.substack.com/p/the-most-important-graph-in-ai-right • Why AI isn't replacing radiologists: https://www.understandingai.org/p/ai-isnt-replacing-radiologists • Shorting the AI jobs apocalypse: https://forklightning.substack.com/p/shorting-the-ai-jobs-apocalypse • How well is Claude playing Pokémon: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HyD3khBjnBhvsp8Gb/so-how-well-is-claude-playing-pokemon Chapters: • What people get wrong about automation (00:00) • Four types of skills likely to increase in value in an age of AI (08:37) • Which skills will be most valuable in the future? (21:38) • Which combinations of skills are best? (33:19) _Video and audio editing: Milo McGuire and Daniel Recinto_ _Camera operator: Jeremy Chevillotte_ _Production: Ailbhe Treacy, Sam Pickering, Elizabeth Cox, Katy Moore, and Dominic Armstrong_
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